It will be a battle between Mountain West opponents when the Nevada Wolf Pack (13-9) welcome the Air Force Falcons (12-12) to Lawlor Events Center. Action gets underway at 10:00 pm ET on Wednesday, Feb. 10 and will air on RT.
The Wolf Pack were beaten by Colorado State 76-67 on Saturday. Lindsey Drew had a good game, finishing with 13 points, eight rebounds, and three steals for Nevada. The Falcons, meanwhile, are coming off a 61-53 win over Boise State on Saturday. CJ Siples shot 8 for 11 and led in scoring with 25 points.
The Nevada defense should have a clear edge in terms of eFG%. It ranks 30th in the nation in forcing misses (opponents’ eFG% of 45.2%), while the Air Force offense is 280th with a mark of 47.5%. Also, the offense of the Falcons seems ready to earn plenty of trips to the line. They rank 34th in the nation in FTA rate (43.5), while the Wolf Pack are among the nation’s most foul-happy teams (allowing a 309th-ranked mark of 43.0).
This is the second game of the year between these two teams, with the Wolf Pack winning the first matchup 86-63. Tyron Criswell was a standout player in the game, producing 19 points, seven rebounds, three assists, and one steal.
The Wolf Pack are hoping to build on their records of 13-9 Straight Up (SU) and 9-11 Against The Spread (ATS). They are 3-7 ATS over their last 10 games. Nevada has averaged 61.3 points per game over the last 10 games, lower than its season average of 76.4. The Wolf Pack have a distinct advantage on the boards in this matchup. They are the 25th-ranked rebounding team in Division I, averaging 40.8 per game, while the Falcons rank 253rd in the nation with 35.1 per game. The Wolf Pack have really locked down opponents on the defensive end, ranking 30th in the country with a .396 opponent field-goal percentage. The Wolf Pack are 44th in the country in steals with 7.7 per game.
Over on the other bench, the Falcons have 12-12 SU and 8-10 ATS records. Air Force may be taking trips to the free throw line early and often with the Wolf Pack averaging 22.5 fouls per game, one of the highest marks in Division I.
Nevada won the last meeting this season between these two teams, moving its SU record against Air Force to 5-2 in their most recent head-to-head meetings. With a 6-1 record, the Wolf Pack also have the advantage ATS. When it comes to field goals, rebounds, and three-pointers, Nevada held the edge in all three of these categories five times in the last five meetings. Air Force never did so in those games.
Predictions: SU Winner – Nevada, ATS Winner – Nevada
Notes
Nevada averages 76.4 points per game (ranked 90th). Air Force, on the other hand, allows 71.0 points per game (ranked 136th).
The Nevada Wolf Pack average 72.8 possessions and 1.050 points per possession in games this season. The Air Force Falcons average fewer possessions with 68.7, as well as fewer points per possession with .981.
The Air Force Falcons average an effective field goal percentage of 47.5% this season. The Nevada Wolf Pack have a winning 6-3 record in games where opponents have an eFG% of 47.5% or greater.
On average, Nevada attempts 17.0 three pointers and Air Force attempts 17.0. In games where they have 20 or more three point attempts, both have losing records. The Nevada Wolf Pack are 3-5 while the Air Force Falcons are 3-7.
The Nevada Wolf Pack are one of the top rebounding teams in the nation with an average of 40.8 per game (ranked 25th). The Air Force Falcons are outside the top 100 with 35.1 rebounds per game (ranked 253rd).
Air Force ranks 314th in offensive rebounds, while Nevada ranks at 45th in defensive rebounds.
On average, Nevada forces a turnover rate of 18.8%. When Air Force turns over the ball at a similar or higher rate, the team has a solid 7-3 record.
