Big Sky foes will collide when the Montana Grizzlies (14-8) take on the Southern Utah Thunderbirds (5-17) at Dahlberg Arena. Action begins at 9:00 pm ET on Thursday, Feb. 11.
The Grizzlies barely escaped Portland State 82-80 in their last matchup. Martin Breunig played a pivotal role, recording his ninth double-double this season with 32 points and 10 rebounds. The Thunderbirds, meanwhile, are feeling some disappointment after their 81-67 loss against Eastern Washington in their last outing. Race Parsons had a good shooting night, leading the team with 18 points.
The Thunderbirds may not find many second-chance opportunities in this matchup. They’re ranked 338th in the nation in offensive rebounding (OR% of 23.1%), whereas Montana is 33rd-best in the nation on the defensive glass (DR% of 74.7%).
This will be the second matchup of the season between these two teams. The Grizzlies won the first game 83-66. Breunig was a standout player in the game, producing 24 points, seven rebounds, one assist, two steals, and three blocks.
The Grizzlies enter the game with records of 14-8 Straight Up (SU) and 9-8-2 Against The Spread (ATS). Over their last 10 games, they have only managed a record of 1-9 ATS. Opposing teams know they’re in for a battle when they play Montana’s stingy defense. The Grizzlies are one of the top teams when it comes to defense, allowing just 60.1 points per home game. Montana’s three-point defense can be considered one of the best in the nation, allowing just 5.0 three-pointers per game.
In the other locker room, the Thunderbirds head into the game with records of 4-16 ATS and 5-17 SU. The Thunderbirds average 81.2 points allowed per game, but have improved upon those numbers in the past 10 games, allowing 68.4 points per game during that span.
Following the Grizzlies’ latest win over Southern Utah, their SU record is now 8-0 over Southern Utah in their most recent games. The teams have an even record ATS, 3-3. Both Montana and Southern Utah have led in three key areas (field goals, rebounds, and three-pointers) twice over the last five matchups.
Predictions: SU Winner – Mont, ATS Winner – Mont
Notes
Southern Utah averages 70.0 points per game, placing the team just 191st in the nation. Montana ranks 81st in points allowed, giving up 68.2 points per game.
The Southern Utah Thunderbirds average 69.7 possessions per game and 1.005 points per possession. The Montana Grizzlies earn fewer possessions with 67.3, but they score more points with 1.055.
Southern Utah has an average effective field goal percentage of 50.0%. Montana is an even 3-3 when opponents have a similar or higher effective field goal percentage.
On average, Montana attempts 21.0 three pointers and Southern Utah attempts 19.0. In games where they have 20 or more three point attempts, the Montana Grizzlies have a fantastic 12-3 record while the Southern Utah Thunderbirds have a subpar 2-8 record.
On average, Southern Utah forces a turnover rate of 17.5%. When Montana turns over the ball at a similar or higher rate, the team has a winning 11-5 record.
