It will be a a defensive battle between two of the Big West’s top scoring defenses when the Long Beach State 49ers (12-12) go head-to-head against the Cal Poly Mustangs (8-14). Action begins at 10:00 pm ET on Thursday, Feb. 11 and will air on ES3.
The 49ers enter this game hoping for similar success after defeating Cal State Northridge 81-76 in their last game. Nick Faust was the game’s high scorer with 27 points on 7-for-13 shooting. The Mustangs, meanwhile, are coming off a 75-60 loss at the hands of Hawaii in their last outing. Jaylen Shead had a solid game for Cal Poly, recording nine points, five assists, and four rebounds.
Over the last five games, Faust has really been playing well for the 49ers, averaging 21.2 points, 6.0 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 2.0 steals, and 2.6 three-pointers.
This will be the second matchup of the season between these two teams. The Mustangs won the first game 96-92. Brian Bennett played a huge role in the victory by recording a double-double with 21 points and 12 rebounds.
The 49ers come into this game 12-12 Straight Up (SU) and 14-8-1 Against The Spread (ATS). In their last 10 games, they are 2-8 ATS. Long Beach State is excellent from the perimeter with 210 three-pointers made (8.0 per game), the 42nd-most in the country.
On the other side, the Mustangs have 8-14 SU and 6-13 ATS records. When it comes to making good decisions with the ball, not many are better than the Mustangs. They have one of the top assist-to-turnover ratios in the country at 1.48.
With the Mustangs’ last win against Long Beach State, Cal Poly moved closer to evening up its record against Long Beach State. It now stands at 3-7 SU over their most recent meetings. On the other hand, Cal Poly holds the advantage ATS with a record of 7-3. When it comes to field goals, rebounds, and three-pointers, Cal Poly held the edge in all three of these categories once in the last five meetings. Long Beach State never did so in those games.
Predictions: SU Winner – LgBch, ATS Winner – LgBch
Notes
Cal Poly averages 73.8 points per away game (ranked 82nd). Long Beach State allows 64.4 points per home game (ranked 62nd).
Long Beach State has an average field goal percentage of 43.9%. Cal Poly is a subpar 1-14 when opponents have a similar or higher field goal percentage.
The Long Beach State 49ers and the Cal Poly Mustangs both rank higher in average effective field goal percentage when compared to their field goal percentages. Long Beach State is 182nd and 130th in the nation for FG% and eFG% respectively, while Cal Poly is 222nd and 203rd in these categories.
Long Beach State ranks 57th in assists, recording 15.6 per game. Cal Poly ranks 87th with 15.0 assists per game.
The Long Beach State 49ers average 6.8 steals per game. When giving up 6 or more steals, the Cal Poly Mustangs have an abysmal record (2-6) this season.
