It will be a clash between two of the nation’s top scoring offenses when the No. 17-ranked Arizona Wildcats (20-5) challenge the No. 23-ranked USC Trojans (18-6). Action begins at 8:00 pm ET on Sunday, Feb. 14 and will air on FS1.
The Wildcats come into this game hoping to repeat their last performance, beating UCLA 81-75 on Friday. Parker Jackson-Cartwright played a key role with 16 points, four assists, and two rebounds. The Trojans, meanwhile, are coming off a 74-67 loss against Arizona State on Friday. Nikola Jovanovic played well, accounting for his seventh double-double of the season with 25 points and 15 rebounds.
From an eFG% perspective, this will be a balanced matchup. The sharp-shooting Arizona offense ranks 31st in the nation in that metric at 54.1%, while USC is 19th-best in the nation at forcing opponents’ misses (44.9%).
This will be the second matchup of the season between these two teams. The Trojans won the first game 103-101. Elijah Stewart was a standout player in the game, producing 27 points, four rebounds, and five three-pointers.
The Wildcats have gone 20-5 Straight Up (SU) and 14-11 Against The Spread (ATS). The Wildcats have no trouble scoring as they rank 21st in the nation in offense with 81.2 points per game. The Arizona defense has been struggling to keep points off the board during its most recent matchups. The Wildcats have given up an average of 79.6 points to opponents in their last 10 games, well over their defense’s season average of 67.9 PPG. The Wildcats do a great job keeping their opponents off of the glass and limiting second-chance points. They average 29.2 defensive rebounds per game, which ranks 11th in Division I.
Over on the other bench, the Trojans have records of 15-9 ATS and 18-6 SU. Blocking shots is an area where USC has excelled. The Trojans average 5.8 blocks per game, making them one of the best in the nation.
USC beat Arizona in their most recent meeting this season, but Arizona still leads the head-to-head record, 7-3 SU, over their most recent matchups. The Wildcats also lead the matchup ATS with a record of 7-3. Arizona held the edge in field goals, rebounds, and three-pointers three times in the last five games, while USC wasn’t able to do so in that span.
Predictions: SU Winner – USC, ATS Winner – USC
Notes
Arizona is one of the top-scoring teams in the nation, averaging 81.2 points per game (ranked 21st). USC, on the other hand, allows 73.4 points per game (ranked 173rd).
Arizona scores 81.3 points per home game (ranked 54th). USC ranks a poor 207th in points allowed on the road, allowing 79.1 points.
The Arizona Wildcats rank 31st for their offensive rating of 114.1. The USC Trojans have a defensive rating of 98.3 (ranked 73rd).
The USC Trojans average 74.5 possessions per game and 1.118 points per possession. The Arizona Wildcats earn fewer possessions with 71.2, but they score more points with 1.141.
Arizona has an average effective field goal percentage of 54.1%. USC is an even 1-1 when opponents have a similar or higher effective field goal percentage.
On average, Arizona attempts 16.0 three pointers and USC attempts 21.0. Both teams have winning records when they have 20 or more three point attempts. The Arizona Wildcats sit at 7-1 and the USC Trojans are 13-4.
USC ranks 87th in the nation with an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.21. Arizona is ranked lower at 135th with an A/TO of 1.11.
USC, the 12th-ranked team in rebounding, registers an average of 41.6 rebounds per game. Arizona ranks 29th with 40.4.
The USC Trojans rank 74th in offensive rebounds, and the Arizona Wildcats rank 11th in the nation in defensive rebounds.
On average, Arizona forces a turnover rate of 17.2%. When USC turns over the ball at a similar or higher rate, the team has a solid 8-3 record.
