The Pepperdine Waves (16-10) will wrap up the regular season when they matchup with the San Francisco Dons (14-11) at Firestone Fieldhouse. Action begins at 10:00 pm ET on Thursday, Feb. 18.
The Waves barely escaped Pacific 65-63 the last time they played. Stacy Davis fueled the Waves, recording 12 points and 12 rebounds to notch his 11th double-double this season. The Dons, meanwhile, are coming off a 68-51 win against San Diego in their last outing. Tim Derksen shot 7 for 14 and led in scoring with 18 points.
Over the last five games, Davis has really been playing well for the Waves. During that stretch, he has averaged 17.2 points, 10.0 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 0.6 blocks, and 1.4 three-pointers. Derksen has been hot for the Dons. In the same five-game span, he is averaging 18.6 points, 8.6 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 0.8 steals, and 1.6 three-pointers.
This will be the second matchup of the season between these two teams. The Waves won the first game 98-84. Lamond Murray Jr. was a top performer in the victory with 29 points, nine rebounds, three steals, and four three-pointers.
The Waves are looking to build on their records of 16-10 Straight Up (SU) and 13-13 Against The Spread (ATS). The most recent ten-game stretch for the Waves has gone great. Over that span, Pepperdine is averaging 81.4 points per game, well over their season average of 72.2. The Waves will be looking to pick it up in this one after recent defensive struggles. The Waves have given up an average of 82.9 points to opponents in their last 10 games, well over their defense’s season average of 69.0 PPG. The Waves have stifled opponents’ efforts from beyond the arc, allowing a three-point field goal percentage of only .299. Pepperdine has given up very few turnovers with an average of only 11.3 per game.
As for their opponent, the Dons have records of 11-11 ATS and 14-11 SU. Most recently, San Francisco is 7-3 ATS over the last 10 games. The Dons are a force on the boards, grabbing an average of 40.0 rebounds per game. The last 10 games have really brought out the best of the Dons on the defensive end. They’ve allowed 69.0 points per game during that span, which is lower than their season average of 77.5.
In their previous meeting this season, Pepperdine beat San Francisco, but San Francisco still leads the head-to-head record over their most recent games, 8-2 SU. The Dons also hold the advantage ATS with a record of 7-3. San Francisco topped the Waves in three key areas (field goals, rebounds, and three-pointers) once over the last five matchups. Pepperdine has never had the edge in all three categories.
Predictions: SU Winner – Pepper, ATS Winner – Pepper
Notes
The San Francisco Dons average 77.3 points per game, ranking 76th in the nation. The Pepperdine Waves rank 95th in points allowed with 69.0.
With 68.3 possessions and 1.057 points per possession, the Pepperdine Waves perform worse on both metrics than the San Francisco Dons. San Francisco averages 71.1 possessions and 1.087 points per possession.
The Pepperdine Waves average an effective field goal percentage of 49.0% this season. The San Francisco Dons have an underachieving record of 3-9 when opponents have an eFG% of 49.0% or greater.
Pepperdine attempts an average of 14.0 three pointers per game and San Francisco attempts 21.0. In games where they have 20 or more three point attempts, the Pepperdine Waves are even at 2-2 while the San Francisco Dons have a 7-10 record.
San Francisco, the 38th-ranked team in rebounding, registers an average of 40.0 rebounds per game. Pepperdine does worse, ranked 146th with 36.9.
The San Francisco Dons rank 45th in offensive rebounds. The Pepperdine Waves rank 143rd in the nation in defensive rebounds.
On average, Pepperdine forces a turnover rate of 17.4%. When San Francisco turns over the ball at a similar or higher rate, the team has a solid 11-5 record.
