The Portland Pilots (11-16) will try to slow down the nation’s top shooting team when they take on the Saint Mary’s Gaels (20-4) at Earle A. Chiles Center. The game begins at 10:00 pm ET on Thursday, Feb. 18 and will air on CI.
The Pilots were blown out by Gonzaga 92-66 in their last matchup. Jarrel Marshall was the game’s leading scorer with 25 points. The Gaels, meanwhile, are coming off a 68-62 win over Loyola Marymount in their last outing. Joe Rahon played well for Saint Mary’s, accumulating nine points, seven assists, and five rebounds.
Over the last five games, Alec Wintering has taken his game to another level for the Pilots. During that stretch, he has averaged 22.8 points, 4.6 rebounds, 5.2 assists, 1.6 steals, and 2.2 three-pointers.
The Pilots may have trouble getting to the line in this one. They’re 324th in the nation in FTA rate (29.9), while Saint Mary’s is among the nation’s least foul-prone squads (yielding a FTA rate of just 26.7, 16th in the country). Moreover, the second-ranked offense of the Gaels (offensive efficiency of 122.0) will try to exploit the 300th-ranked defense of the Pilots (defensive efficiency of 109.2).
This is the second game of the season between these two teams, with the Gaels winning the first matchup 89-74. Dane Pineau put up 20 points and 13 rebounds.
The Pilots come into this game 11-16 Straight Up (SU) and 11-13 Against The Spread (ATS). They have a solid 7-3 SU record over their last 10 games, but have not fared as well ATS (2-8). The Pilots have seen a decline in scoring as of late, averaging 69.2 points during the last 10 games compared to their season average of 78.0 points per game. Portland’s defense has put it all together in the past 10 games. Its average points allowed per game dropped to 62.7 during that span, compared to its 79.1 season average.
In the other locker room, the Gaels have records of 13-8 ATS and 20-4 SU. Saint Mary’s is the top shooting team in the country, converting .510 of its shots from the floor. The Gaels are an unselfish team with an average of 17.5 assists per game, ranking ninth in Division I. The Gaels average 59.8 points allowed per game, but have damaged those numbers in the past 10 games, allowing 82.4 points per game during that span. Don’t expect Saint Mary’s to give away the ball much on offense, where its 9.8 turnovers per game ranks seventh in the country.
Saint Mary’s won the last meeting this season between these two teams, bringing its SU record in their most recent games to 9-1. Furthermore, Saint Mary’s leads the matchup ATS with a record of 6-4. Saint Mary’s held the edge in field goals, rebounds, and three-pointers once in the last five game, while Portland wasn’t able to do so in that span.
Predictions: SU Winner – Por, ATS Winner – Por
Notes
Portland averages 78.0 points per game this season. Saint Mary’s is one of the highest-ranked teams in points allowed, giving up just 59.8 points per game (ranked fourth).
In its last game, Portland lost by a margin of 26 points. Saint Mary’s is 9-0 in games decided by a margin of 18 points or more. Portland has a 3-2 record in blowouts.
Ranked second, the Saint Mary’s Gaels have an offensive rating of 122.0. The Portland Pilots, on the other hand, rank 300th with a defensive rating of 109.2.
The Saint Mary’s Gaels have one of the best field goal percentages this season, ranking first in the nation with a FG% of 51.0%. When their opponents record a similar or higher FG%, the Portland Pilots are winless with a 0-6 record.
The Portland Pilots rank higher based on their effective field goal percentage (150th) than their field goal percentage (210th). The Saint Mary’s Gaels rank first for both their FG% and eFG%.
The Saint Mary’s Gaels rank ninth in assists per game, making an average of 17.5. The Portland Pilots are among the worst in the country with 13.9 assists per game (ranked 142nd).
Portland, the 100th-ranked team in blocked shots, records an average of 4.1 per game. Saint Mary’s does worse, ranked 196th with 3.2.
The Portland Pilots make an average of 6.9 steals per game. When the Saint Mary’s Gaels allow 6 or more steals, they are an outstanding 6-2.
