The college football season starts for real, with a full slate of Football Bowl Subdivision games, on Thursday, Aug. 28. How do the top 15 teams in the nation stack up?
1. Florida State Seminoles
This week: +327
The Seminoles are coming off a perfect national championship season in which they didn’t lose a game. Florida State had no real weaknesses. With Heisman Trophy quarterback in Jameis Winston at the helm, the Seminoles blew out most everyone on their schedule. Florida State’s aggressive defense also played a huge part in the team’s success. It shut down Clemson on the road in a night game that was supposed to be one of the showdowns of the ACC season. That same Florida State defense was caught off guard by only two opponents all season, Boston College and Auburn. Florida State returns a lot of its talent from the defensive side of the ball. If it is not overconfident, it should be an excellent team once again this season.
2. Alabama Crimson Tide
This week: +600
The Tide’s best friend this season should be its anger. Alabama is fuming after somehow losing to Auburn in 2013’s game of the year. Alabama’s fourth-down offense and its kicking game both stumbled in that game, so even though the Crimson Tide had a 21-7 lead and were in control most of the way, they kept Auburn close with their mistakes. The Tigers were able to come up with a few huge plays in the final three minutes of the game and pull off the incredible upset that sent them to the BCS National Championship Game and forced Alabama to settle for the Sugar Bowl. Alabama was denied a chance to play for a third straight national championship. The Crimson Tide and head coach Nick Saban want to show that they can take back the power in the SEC and college football. This should make them very tough, and they should have the offensive and defensive lines to do this.
3. Oregon Ducks
This week: +750
The Ducks enjoy high odds for two basic reasons. First, Stanford has a very tough schedule, which should enable Oregon to play in the Pac-12 Championship Game and be likely to win it. The Ducks are in a good spot as far as winning the Pac-12 title is concerned. Oddsmakers then feel that if Oregon wins the Pac-12, it will be part of the College Football Playoff. Bettors are probably thinking that the Pac-12 champion has a better chance of making the playoff than the Big 12 or Big Ten champion. That’s why Oregon is put this high on the list. The Ducks, though, have to get by both Stanford and UCLA in the regular season if they want to have the inside track to a playoff spot. The Ducks must beat at least one of those teams to feel comfortable about winning their division, the Pac-12 North.
4. Oklahoma Sooners
This week: +977
The Sooners got hot late last season, but getting hot over the course of three or four games is different from dominating throughout a season. Oklahoma did not dominate at all through the first two months of the 2013 season. The Sooners survived, and then they improved at the end and in the Sugar Bowl against Alabama. Some will be skeptical of the Sooners, but what should help them is that they played through injuries last year and gave a lot of valuable experience to a lot of players in their lineup. They’re deep and tested, and that should bode well for them.
5. UCLA Bruins
This week: +1749
The Bruins are the clear favorite to win the Pac-12 South and face Oregon in the Pac-12 Championship Game. These are reasonable expectations, but should UCLA be expected to do anything more? The Bruins weren’t close to beating Oregon or Stanford last season. They are experienced, but is their talent level ready to take the next step?
6. Michigan State
This week: +2005
The Michigan State Spartans have clearly benefitted from the Braxton Miller injury. They were deemed to be among the Big Ten’s top three before but now they’re the frontrunner. With Miller out, it’s unrealistic to expect Ohio State to still compete for the BCS without their Heisman Trophy candidate. As for Wisconsin, they’re in rebuilding mode themselves. The Big Ten is Sparty’s to lose.
7. Auburn Tigers
This week: +2200
The Tigers used a 109-yard field goal return to beat Alabama. They used an incredible deflected pass-and-catch to beat Georgia two weeks earlier from a nearly impossible position on fourth down and long. Auburn had everything fall into place last year, but the Tigers weren’t even expected to be an SEC and national contender in November. Remember, this is a team that was 3-9 overall and 0-8 in the SEC in 2012. Head coach Gus Malzahn was supposed to have had a major rebuilding project on his hands. A 7-5 season last year would have struck a lot of people as being a fairly natural expectation of the Tigers. Malzahn took this team to 12-1 heading into the BCS title game. He’s shown that he can do great things with an offense, a running game, and a style of play that catches opposing defenses off guard. If Auburn can pass the ball a little better this year, it could upend Alabama again.
8. LSU Tigers
This week: +2284
The Tigers have a new quarterback, Brandon Harris, who replaces Zach Mettenberger as the most important player on the team. Mettenberger stumbled through 2012, but he improved a lot in 2013, and LSU made some small steps forward that would have been even bigger steps had the team played better defense, especially in two-minute-drill situations. LSU still has a chance to be good this year because its defensive line is supposed to be outstanding. If the defense can get after opposing quarterbacks and smother the running game of both Alabama and Auburn, it could all come together for Les Miles’ team.
9. Georgia Bulldogs
This week: +2499
The Bulldogs are one of two teams (along with South Carolina) expected to contend for the SEC East Division championship, with Florida and Missouri being third and fourth. Georgia’s defense is supposed to be a lot better this season than it was last season. The Bulldogs’ ground game with Todd Gurley, a Heisman Trophy contender, should also help them a lot and steer young quarterback Hutson Mason through the full season. Georgia’s combination of defense and running should create a different kind of team after last year’s group liked to throw the ball a lot with Aaron Murray, now in the NFL with the Kansas City Chiefs.
10. Baylor +2410
Baylor is not getting much love but they have as good of a shot as anyone to win the Big 12. Quarterback Bryce Petty is not only one of the best in the conference but also one of the best in the nation. We know that Baylor will score points at a healthy rate and if their defense can contribute anything, they’ll be a BCS contender.
11. Ohio State Buckeyes +2501
12. Wisconsin +2921
13. Stanford +3970
14. USC +3794
15. South Carolina +4284
