Big 12 foes will lock horns when the No. 13 Iowa State Cyclones (18-8) play the TCU Horned Frogs (11-15) at James H. Hilton Coliseum. Action begins at 7:30 pm ET on Saturday, Feb. 20 and can be seen on ESU and ES3.
The Cyclones are hoping to rebound after their 100-91 loss to Baylor on Tuesday. Abdel Nader was the team’s leading scorer with 26 points. The Horned Frogs, meanwhile, are feeling some disappointment after their 63-49 loss against Kansas State on Tuesday. Devonta Abron had a good game for TCU, accounting for six points, eight rebounds, and two blocks.
Based on historical performance heading into this one, ball security could play a key role in the matchup. Iowa State commits the 29th-fewest miscues in the nation (TO% of 15.7%), while the pesky defense of TCU causes the 27th-most (opponents’ TO% of 21.9%). Furthermore, getting to the line could play a crucial role for the Horned Frogs. They rank 16th in the nation in FTA rate (45.2). However, the Cyclones are among the best in the nation at keeping opponents off the charity stripe (ranking first at 22.7).
This is the second game of the year between these two teams, with the Cyclones winning the first matchup 73-60. Monte Morris had a stellar game with 18 points, six assists, one steal, one block, and two three-pointers.
The Cyclones have gone 18-8 Straight Up (SU) and 12-10-1 Against The Spread (ATS). Over their last 10 games, they have only managed a record of 3-7 ATS. The Cyclones have no trouble scoring as they rank 29th in the nation in home offense with 83.8 points per game. Iowa State is one of the best passing teams in the nation with an average of 16.4 assists per game.
Over on the other bench, the Horned Frogs have 11-15 SU and 8-13 ATS records. Offensively, the Horned Frogs have really picked up the pace in the last 10 games. They have exceeded their season average of 66.2 points per game by averaging 77.6 during that stretch.
With the Cyclones’ last win against TCU, their SU record is now 7-0 over TCU in their most recent games. Furthermore, Iowa State holds the advantage ATS with a record of 5-2. Neither team held the edge in field goals, rebounds, or three-pointers in a single game during this span.
Predictions: SU Winner – IaSt, ATS Winner – IaSt
Notes
“Iowa State is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games “.
“Iowa State is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games “.
“Iowa State is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games “.
“Iowa State is 12-3 SU in its last 15 games at home”.
“Iowa State is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing TCU”.
“Iowa State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing TCU”.
“The total has gone OVER in 4 of Iowa State’s last 6 games when playing TCU”.
“The total has gone OVER in 4 of TCU’s last 6 games when playing Iowa State”.
Iowa State is one of the highest-scoring teams in the nation, averaging 82.6 points per game (ranked 15th). TCU allows 69.1 points per game (ranked 96th).
Ranked 25th, the Iowa State Cyclones have an offensive rating of 114.6. The TCU Horned Frogs rank 101st with a defensive rating of just 99.9.
The Iowa State Cyclones have one of the best field goal percentages this season, ranking third in the nation with a FG% of 50.3%. When their opponents record a similar or higher FG%, the TCU Horned Frogs are winless with a 0-5 record.
On average, the Iowa State Cyclones attempt 21.0 three point field goals per game and the TCU Horned Frogs attempt 16.0. In games where they attempt at least 20 three pointers, Iowa State has a stellar record of 13-4, while TCU has a losing record of 1-3.
The Iowa State Cyclones rank 23rd with an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.45, while the TCU Horned Frogs rank outside the top 100 (316th) with an A/TO of .80.
TCU ranks 165th in offensive rebounds, while Iowa State ranks at 70th in defensive rebounds.
TCU has forced an average turnover rate of 21.9% this season. In games where its turnover rate is 21.9% or higher, Iowa State is an even 2-2.
