Rafael dos Anjos has broken his foot and is out of UFC 196. This means a late replacement fighter will have to step in to take on McGregor on just two weeks notice.
An opponent has not been named – maybe one will be named by the time you read this. As of right now, there is undoubtedly a short list of fighters who may be getting the call. As it stands, that list is: Anthony Pettis, Donald Cerrone, Nate Diaz, and Eddie Alvarez.
I believe we can cross Anthony Pettis‘s name off this list. Yes, Pettis vs. McGregor would be a stylistic wet dream for most MMA fans, but it’s just not a practical match up. McGregor was supposed to be fighting for the UFC lightweight title against Rafael dos Anjos at UFC 196; with RDA out of the picture, it does not make sense for him to be taking on someone who is on a two-fight losing streak. It’s a great match up, but it’s not going to happen. Besides, why pull Pettis from the sensational match he is already schedule for against Edson Barboza?
Donald Cerrone is one of the most likely candidates, and in my opinion he is THE most likely candidate. Cerrone just fought this past weekend, but he sustained virtually no damage. A couple knees to the body and thigh – nothing more than what I’m sure he sustains during a routine sparring session, in fact probably less. Cerrone and McGregor have already had their memorable exchange of words back when the two verbally sparred at the UFC’s grand “Go Big” press conference. Cerrone is a “stay ready” type of fighter who has jumped in last-minute several times before for the UFC. I would think Cerrone is the ideal fighter as he is not only healthy after coming off a strong fight camp, but he’s also a big name that could easily maintain PPV buys with a McGregor vs. Cerrone bout. The only question with Cerrone is whether or not he could make the weight. Cerrone fought at 170 in his last bout, and has been reported to weigh 174 lbs. A bout between him and McGregor could very easily end up at a catch weight at UFC 196.
Nate Diaz is the other high profile option, and is the guy that many are rooting for to get the call. Again, it’s the stylistic match up that makes MMA fans giddy. That, and the undoubted verbal assaults that are sure to take place will certainly sell PPVs. However, is Diaz able to step in on short notice and be healthy? We’ve seen Diaz enter the Octagon before when he was not his best against Rafael dos Anjos, and his performance was lackluster to say the least. Can he pass his drug test? We know Diaz likes to light up, so can he even jump into a fight on short notice and pass the drug test? Can he cut down to 155 lbs? These are all questions that the UFC will need answers to when it comes to Nate Diaz.
Finally, Eddie Alvarez is another option. Not many are campaigning for Alvarez to get the shot against McGregor, but I do believe he is the logical choice here. If we want talk about who “deserves” this fight – it’s no doubt Alvarez. Back at UFC 189 when Jose Aldo pulled out, the UFC went down the ladder one peg and arrived at Chad Mendes. Why wouldn’t they do the same here? Alvarez is listed as the number one contender in the lightweight division – so why not make Alvarez vs. McGregor for the Interim Lightweight Championship at UFC 196? Unfortunately, Alvarez is not as big of a draw as Donald Cerrone or Nate Diaz. That, and stylistically it’s not an intriguing fight. Alvarez is known to be a wrestle-boxer who has won his last two fights by very slim margins – he doesn’t bring in the same value as a Cerrone or Diaz. I know I just answered my own question here, but I think it prompts discussion on whether the UFC is going to treat this logically and pick the next in line, or if they’re going to pick the fighter that is going to be the biggest draw for UFC 196.
