You’ve waited long enough. I know you’ve checked back here every day looking for Part Two of my young running backs hitting free agency article, only to settle for daily NFL Combine wrap ups. I’m sorry. You can blame me if you must.
Before we finish up, here’s a link to Part One where I discussed the merits of Denver Broncos running backs Ronnie Hillman and C.J. Anderson along with the New York Jets’ Chris Ivory. Go ahead and read it if you missed it the first time. We’ll wait.
3. Alfred Morris, Washington Redskins
Age: 27
2015: 202 carries, 3.7 yards per carry, 751 yards, one touchdown
The emergence of Matt Jones for the Redskins not only cut into Morris’ carries, but will almost certainly cost him his roster spot when free agency officially begins next week. Morris was banged up for a lot of the 2015 season too so, for him at least, he’s hitting free agency at exactly the wrong time.
What Morris does have in his favor are his age and his production. Even in an off year it was still pretty good. Morris is a tough runner, a pinball-type guy and doesn’t like to turn the ball over. He didn’t have a single fumble this season. What jumps off the film for me with Morris is his acceleration when he hits the hole. And even then, he’s not done. Morris loves to put a downfield move on a defensive back to pick up more yardage.
So who will want Morris? Any team that wants to put together a power running game. It wouldn’t surprise me at all to see him with the Dallas Cowboys, New England Patriots or New York Giants next season.
2. Lamar Miller, Miami Dolphins
Age: 24
2015: 194 carries, 4.5 yards per carry, 872 yards, eight touchdowns, 47 catches, 397 yards, two touchdowns
There’s an argument to be made that Miller may be the best young guy on the market this offseason and it’s a good one. His production was down last season, but everything was down about the Dolphins, so much so that they fired not one, but two head coaches by the end of the year. Even with his touches down, Miller still delivered any time he did get the ball in his hands and is a tremendous receiver out of the backfield, something that should make him even more valuable for teams on the open market.
With Adam Gase beginning his first year as the Dolphins’ head coach, Miller’s value should be obvious to him. Reportedly the Dolphins people are already meeting with Miller’s agent at the NFL Combine to work something out. What really works against Miller staying in Miami is Gase’s relationship with Matt Forte, who is also a free agent. Can be Miller turn into Forte someday? Maybe. But Forte is sitting right there, right now and will probably cost less to bring in than re-signing a 24-year-old back in his prime.
If I ran the Tennessee Titans, Miller would be one of my top priorities to bring in this offseason and pair him with Marcus Mariota in the backfield. Tampa Bay may be thinking the same thing if they can’t work out a deal with Doug Martin. Then, of course, there’s the Chicago Bears who may be thinking the same thing about Miller’s Forte potential.
1. Doug Martin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Age: 27
2015: 288 carries, 1.402 yards, six touchdowns, 33 catches, 271 yards, one touchdown
The last two guys I featured on this list are due for bounce-back seasons. Martin just had his and now the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will have to pay for it. Martin is a franchise back that the Bucs won’t use the franchise tag on, but they’ll have to really pay the man to keep him. And they should.
The franchise tag for running backs this season is $11.789 million and that’s probably about five million more than the Bucs want to spend. Tampa is probably looking at something like $8 million a year, which would put Martin in the LeSean McCoy and DeMarco Murray pay range and that should be more than fair. He won’t be cheaper than that. Not at 27 and after the year he had.
While the Bucs will do all they can to keep Martin that doesn’t mean they won’t have to sweat it out a little with him on the open market. Martin would be a perfect fit for a young Oakland Raiders team, the New York Jets, the Bears, the Broncos, the Indianapolis Colts. The list goes on and the Bucs will have to fend off every single one of those teams with cold, hard cash.
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