The Miami Heat head to the TD Garden to take on the Boston Celtics. The game begins at 3:00 pm ET on Saturday, Feb. 27 and can be seen on CNE and SUN.
The Celtics come into this game on a high note after defeating the Bucks 112-107 on Thursday. Isaiah Thomas led all scorers on the team with 27 points on 10-for-21 shooting. The Heat, meanwhile, are coming off a 118-112 loss at the hands of the Warriors on Wednesday. Dwyane Wade led the team in scoring with 32 points.
Over the last five games, Jae Crowder and Thomas have been better than usual for the Celtics. During that stretch, Crowder has averaged 19.2 points, 6.6 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 1.2 steals, and 2.2 three-pointers. Not to be outdone, Thomas has put up 25.6 points, 2.0 rebounds, 9.0 assists, 1.4 steals, and 2.0 three-pointers. The Heat also have their own player combo that has been hot in that same time frame. Hassan Whiteside has averaged 19.8 points, 15.0 rebounds, and 3.0 blocks, while Luol Deng has put up 19.4 points, 10.0 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 1.4 steals, and 0.8 three-pointers.
This game should be a battle of contrasting styles. The Celtics (ranked third in the league in possessions per game) prefer a fast-breaking style of play, while the Heat (29th) are methodical.
This will be the second matchup of the season between these two teams. The Celtics won the first game 105-95. Avery Bradley was a top performer in the victory with 25 points, two rebounds, three assists, three steals, one block, and three three-pointers.
The Celtics have gone 34-25 Straight Up (SU) and 31-26-2 Against The Spread (ATS). In their last 10 games, they are 7-3 ATS. Boston has been steady from the free throw line, shooting a superb .789. The Celtics, sporting the third-best assist-to-turnover ratio in the NBA (1.78), have proven themselves to be an extremely efficient offensive team. Crossing over to the defensive side of the court, the Celtics have stifled opponents’ efforts from beyond the arc, allowing a three-point field goal percentage of only .328. Something to watch out for is if Boston can force its opponents into turnovers and convert them into baskets. They’ve done an excellent job of that all year with an average of 18.9 points off turnovers per game.
As for their opponent, the Heat have 32-25 SU and 30-26-1 ATS records. Miami has records of 32-25 SU and 30-26-1 ATS against the East. Offensively, the Heat have really picked up the pace in the last 10 games. They have exceeded their season average of 97.0 points per game by averaging 112.9 during that stretch. Miami’s defense has allowed an average of 109.5 points per game during the last 10 games, higher than their season average of 96.9. They average 6.5 blocks per game, good for second in the league. Miami may be taking trips to the free throw line early and often with the Celtics averaging 23.5 fouls per game, one of the highest marks in the NBA.
In their previous meeting this season, Boston beat Miami, but the Heat still lead the head-to-head record over the last 10, 6-4 SU. On the other hand, the Celtics hold the advantage ATS with a record of 7-3.
Predictions: SU Winner – Bos
Notes
“Boston is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games “.
“Boston is 12-4 SU in its last 16 games “.
“The total has gone OVER in 5 of Boston’s last 5 games “.
“Boston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home”.
“Boston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home”.
“The total has gone OVER in 4 of Boston’s last 5 games at home”.
“Boston is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Miami”.
“The total has gone OVER in 12 of Boston’s last 18 games when playing Miami”.
“The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Boston’s last 5 games when playing Miami”.
“Boston is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games when playing at home against Miami”.
“Boston is 17-5 SU in its last 22 games when playing at home against Miami”.
“Boston is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Miami”.
On average, Miami scores 97.0 points per game (ranked 28th), while Boston allows 102.2 points per game (ranked 15th).
Miami puts up an average of 94.1 points per away game (ranked 30th), while Boston gives up 101.0 points per home game (ranked 15th).
In games where they allow fewer than 100 points, the Miami Heat are a solid 26-10. In games where they score fewer than 100 points, the Boston Celtics have a losing record of 5-11.
The Miami Heat have a losing 6-15 record in games where they have allowed at least 100 points. The Boston Celtics are 29-14 when they hit the century mark.
The Heat have an offensive rating of 102.7 (ranked 20th), while the Celtics rank fifth for their defensive rating of 100.7.
The Miami Heat have one of the best field goal percentages this season, ranking seventh in the league with a FG% of 46.0%. When their opponents record a similar or higher FG%, the Boston Celtics have a poor 6-15 record.
On average, the Boston Celtics attempt 27.0 three point field goals per game and the Miami Heat attempt 18.0 per game. In games where they attempt at least 25 threes, Boston is 19-21, while Miami has a losing record of 1-3.
The Boston Celtics, with an assist to turnover ratio of 1.78, rank third in the NBA. The Miami Heat have a lower A/TO (1.52), ranking 19th.
The Boston Celtics rebound 44.8 times per game and are ranked eighth. Ranked 13th, the Miami Heat rebound 44.0 times per game.
The Miami Heat rank 24th in offensive rebounding, while the Boston Celtics rank 16th in defensive rebounding.
Boston is one of the top teams in forced turnovers, with opponents averaging a TOV% of 16.0% (ranked third). Miami has a poor record of 6-13 SU this season when its TOV% reaches 16.0% or greater.
