The No. 24-ranked SMU Mustangs (24-4) wrap up the regular season at Moody Coliseum as they host the Connecticut Huskies (20-9). Action starts at 9:00 pm ET on Thursday, Mar. 3.
The Mustangs had no trouble getting past Tulane 74-53 on Sunday. Ben Moore played a pivotal role, recording his fifth double-double this season with 16 points and 12 rebounds. The Huskies, meanwhile, are coming off a 75-68 loss to Houston on Sunday. Daniel Hamilton led the team in scoring with 20 points.
The game should be a showdown of strength against strength, as the prolific offense of SMU (fifth in the nation with an offensive efficiency of 119.5) takes on the stingy defense of Connecticut (ninth in the nation with a defensive efficiency of 94.1). Moreover, foul-shooting opportunities could prove to be quite rare for the Huskies. They are 338th in the nation in FTA rate (28.9), while the Mustangs are among the nation’s least foul-prone teams (allowing a rate of just 29.5, ranking 35th in the country).
This is the second game of the season between these two teams, with the Huskies winning the first matchup 68-62. Amida Brimah was a top performer in the victory with 16 points, eight rebounds, and five blocks.
The Mustangs come into this game 24-4 Straight Up (SU) and 11-13 Against The Spread (ATS). SMU has been struggling of late. In the last 10 games, SMU has only averaged 69.6 points per game compared to the 78.0 they’ve averaged on the season. SMU has an edge in the rebounding department for this game, where it racks up an average of 39.5 rebounds per game. The Mustangs, sporting the 31st-best assist-to-turnover ratio in Division I (1.43), have proven themselves to be an extremely efficient offensive team. Crossing over to the defensive side of the court, teams routinely struggle to score points against the Mustangs, who allow only 63.9 points per game. An area where the Mustangs are particularly strong is shot blocking, where they average 4.6 blocks per game, 50th in Division I.
As for their opponent, the Huskies head into the game with records of 12-13-1 ATS and 20-9 SU. Connecticut is one of the top foul-shooting teams in the nation, making .774 of their shots from the line. The Huskies average 62.1 points allowed per game, but have damaged those numbers in the past 10 games, allowing 67.4 points per game during that span. They average 5.0 blocks per game, good for 29th in the nation. Taking care of the basketball is something the Huskies do very well, averaging just 11.2 turnovers per game.
Following the Huskies’ latest win over SMU, Connecticut is still behind in the head-to-head record over their most recent meetings, 2-4 SU. Furthermore, SMU leads the matchup ATS with a record of 4-2. When it comes to field goals, rebounds, and three-pointers, SMU held the edge in all three of these categories once in the last five meetings. Connecticut never did so in those games.
Predictions: SU Winner – SMU, ATS Winner – SMU
Notes
SMU averages 78.0 points per game this season. Connecticut is one of the best teams in points allowed, giving up just 62.1 points per game (ranked 11th).
SMU averages 80.2 points per home game (ranked 64th). However, Connecticut has allowed an average of just 61.7 points per away game, ranked fifth this season.
In its last game, SMU won by a margin of 21 points. Connecticut is 11-0 in games decided by a margin of 18 points or more. SMU has an 8-0 record in blowouts.
The Connecticut Huskies rank 89th for their offensive rating of 109.9. The SMU Mustangs have a defensive rating of 97.3 (ranked 36th).
SMU is ranked fourth in the country with an average field goal percentage of 50.0%. Connecticut is an even 1-1 when opponents have a similar or higher field goal percentage.
The SMU Mustangs and the Connecticut Huskies both rank higher in average field goal percentage when compared to their effective field goal percentages. SMU is 15th and fourth in the nation for eFG% and FG% respectively, while Connecticut ranks 87th and 69th in these categories.
The SMU Mustangs rank eighth in assists per game with an average of 17.7. The Connecticut Huskies are among the worst in the country with 13.9 assists per game (ranked 141st).
SMU ranks 50th in blocks per game with 4.6 and Connecticut ranks 29th with 5.0 blocks per game.
SMU is one of the best teams in the country when it comes to offensive rebounds, ranking 25th. Connecticut ranks 69th in defensive rebounds.
On average, SMU forces a turnover rate of 18.6%. When Connecticut turns over the ball at a similar or higher rate, the team has a fantastic 7-2 record.
