The No. 19-ranked Baylor Bears (21-9) and the Big 12’s fifth-ranked offense welcome the No. 10-ranked West Virginia Mountaineers (23-7) and the top-ranked defense in the conference. The game begins at 2:00 pm ET on Saturday, Mar. 5 and will air on ESP and ES3.
The Bears are hoping for a better outcome after their 73-71 loss to Oklahoma on Tuesday. King McClure finished with 17 points to lead the team. The Mountaineers, meanwhile, are coming off a 90-68 win against Texas Tech on Wednesday. Nathan Adrian had a solid game for West Virginia, recording 13 points, five rebounds, and three assists.
The game should be a battle of strength against strength, as the high-octane offense of Baylor (17th in the nation with an offensive efficiency of 115.8) takes on the elite defense of West Virginia (10th in the nation with a defensive efficiency of 94.3).
This will be the second matchup of the season between these two teams. The Mountaineers won the first game 80-69. Daxter Miles Jr. was a top performer in the victory with 20 points, four rebounds, two assists, one steal, one block, and four three-pointers.
The Bears enter the game with records of 21-9 Straight Up (SU) and 10-13-1 Against The Spread (ATS). Baylor has consistently been near the top of the nation in terms of field goal percentage, currently ranking 38th in the nation with a FG% of .473. Few teams in the nation have a higher assist-to-turnover ratio than Baylor, which ranks 22nd at 1.47. Turning to the defensive side, the Bears are the 19th-best team in the country at taking the ball away from their opponents, averaging 8.2 steals per game. Baylor will look to take advantage of the Mountaineers and their propensity to foul. West Virginia ranks 348th in the nation in fouls, averaging 23.5 per game.
Across the court, the Mountaineers head into the game with records of 18-10 ATS and 23-7 SU. The Mountaineers rank 27th in the country in scoring, averaging 79.9 points per game. The Mountaineers are getting to the foul line at a high rate. Their 565 free throws made ranks 11th in Division I. West Virginia is one of the better rebounding teams in Division I. The Mountaineers average 40.1 rebounds per game, making them the 30th-best team in the country for that category. The last 10 games have really brought the worst out of the Mountaineers on the defensive end. They allowed 74.1 points per game during that span, which is higher than their season average of 66.4. Teams don’t seem to hit many three-pointers against the Mountaineers, who are 18th in the country in terms of three-point field goals allowed at 168 this season. Teams with weak ball handling have not fared well against the Mountaineers, who lead the nation with 10.0 steals per game.
With the Mountaineers’ last win against Baylor, West Virginia is still behind in the head-to-head record over their most recent meetings, 2-7 SU. The Bears also lead the matchup ATS with a record of 6-3. Neither team was able to hold the edge in field goals, rebounds, or three-pointers over the course of their latest five contests.
Predictions: SU Winner – Baylor, ATS Winner – Baylor
Notes
“Baylor is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games “.
“Baylor is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games “.
“The total has gone OVER in 6 of Baylor’s last 8 games “.
“Baylor is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games at home”.
“Baylor is 19-5 SU in its last 24 games at home”.
“The total has gone OVER in 5 of Baylor’s last 7 games at home”.
“Baylor is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing West Virginia”.
The West Virginia Mountaineers hold a solid 12-5 SU record in matchups against Big 12 Conference rivals, while the Baylor Bears currently sit at 10-7 in these games.
West Virginia averages 79.9 points per game (ranked 27th). Baylor, on the other hand, allows 69.6 points per game (ranked 103rd).
West Virginia averages 75.1 points per away game (ranked 48th). Baylor allows 66.2 points per home game (ranked 83rd).
The Baylor Bears rank 17th for their offensive rating of 115.8. The West Virginia Mountaineers have a defensive rating of 94.3 (ranked 10th).
The West Virginia Mountaineers average 70.9 possessions per game and 1.128 points per possession. The Baylor Bears earn fewer possessions with 67.6, but they score more points with 1.158.
The Baylor Bears average an effective field goal percentage of 52.6% this season. The West Virginia Mountaineers have split their games this season (4-4) when opponents have an eFG% of 52.6% or greater.
The Baylor Bears average 16.0 three point attempts per game and are 4-5 when attempting at least 20 in a game. The West Virginia Mountaineers average 18.0 attempts and have a winning record (9-4) when attempting 20 or more.
The Baylor Bears rank 22nd with an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.47, while the West Virginia Mountaineers rank outside the top 100 (161st) with an A/TO of 1.08.
Baylor is one of the best teams in the country when it comes to offensive rebounds, ranking 15th. West Virginia ranks just 297th in defensive rebounds.
The Baylor Bears rank 19th in steals this season, with an average of 8.2 per game. When the West Virginia Mountaineers allow at least 8 steals, they have a dazzling 8-1 record.
