The Troy Trojans (9-21) travel to College Park Center to play the UT Arlington Mavericks (21-9), the best team in the Sun Belt. The game starts at 8:15 pm ET on Saturday, Mar. 5.
The Mavericks come into this game hoping to repeat their last performance, defeating South Alabama 92-79 on Thursday. Kaelon Wilson played a pivotal role, recording his fifth double-double this season with 21 points and 10 rebounds. The Trojans are coming off a demoralizing 78-57 loss against Texas State on Thursday. Troy lost despite the best efforts of John Walton III, who recorded his fifth double-double of the season with 16 points and 11 rebounds.
The UT Arlington defense should have a clear edge in terms of eFG%. It ranks 21st in the nation in forcing misses (opponents’ eFG% of 47.1%), while the Troy offense is 291st with a mark of 47.3%. Furthermore, the 280th-ranked offense of the Trojans (offensive efficiency of 100.1) will face a tough test against the 11th-ranked defense of the Mavericks (defensive efficiency of 95.5).
This will be the second matchup of the season between these two teams. The Mavericks won the first game 90-63. Jalen Jones had a stellar game with 21 points, four rebounds, two assists, two steals, and five three-pointers.
The Mavericks have gone 21-9 Straight Up (SU) and 15-13 Against The Spread (ATS). In their last 10 games, they are 3-7 ATS. The Mavericks come into the game with the 29th-ranked scoring offense in the nation, averaging 79.8 points per game. UT Arlington has an edge in the rebounding department for this game, where they rack up a Division I-best 43.5 rebounds per game. Turning to the defensive side, opposing offenses have been stifled by the Mavericks, who allow a field goal percentage of only .401.
Across the court, Troy has a SU record of 9-21 and an ATS record of 10-18. While Troy has gone 3-7 ATS over its past 10 matchups, they’ve excelled SU with a record of 7-3. Offensively, the Trojans have really picked up the pace in the last 10 games. They have exceeded their season average of 69.7 points per game by averaging 77.0 during that stretch.
UT Arlington beat Troy in their most recent meeting this season, bumping its SU record to 3-2 over Troy in their most recent meetings. However, Troy leads the matchup ATS with a record of 3-2. UT Arlington had the advantage in three key areas (field goals, rebounds, and three-pointers) two times over the last five matchups. Troy has never had the edge in all three categories.
Predictions: SU Winner – Tx-Ar, ATS Winner – Tx-Ar
Notes
UT Arlington averages 79.8 points per game (ranked 29th). Troy, on the other hand, allows 74.6 points per game (ranked 197th).
Troy scores just 70.5 points per away game (ranked 129th). UT Arlington ranks 69th in points allowed at home, giving up 64.9 points.
The Troy Trojans have a defensive rating of 106.2 (ranked 74th), while the UT Arlington Mavericks have an offensive rating of 108.4 (ranked 113th).
On average, UT Arlington has 73.6 possessions per game and scores 1.084 points on each possession. Troy has both fewer possessions (69.6) and scores fewer points during those possessions (1.001).
The UT Arlington Mavericks average an effective field goal percentage of 49.3% this season. The Troy Trojans have an underachieving record of 1-14 when opponents have an eFG% of 49.3% or greater.
On average, UT Arlington attempts 26.0 three pointers and Troy attempts 21.0. In games where they have 20 or more three point attempts, the UT Arlington Mavericks have a winning 17-7 record while the Troy Trojans have a subpar 6-15 record.
UT Arlington ranks 76th in the nation with an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.24. Troy is ranked lower at 269th with an A/TO of .92.
The UT Arlington Mavericks are the fourth-ranked team in offensive rebounds, while the Troy Trojans are the 160th-ranked team in defensive rebounds.
The Troy Trojans make an average of 6.0 steals per game. When the UT Arlington Mavericks give up 6 or more steals, they are a solid 15-7.
