The No. 8-ranked North Carolina Tar Heels (24-6) visit Duke to take on the No. 17-ranked Blue Devils (22-8) in what should be a high-scoring game. Action begins at 6:30 pm ET on Saturday, Mar. 5 and will air on ESP and ES3.
The Blue Devils beat Wake Forest 79-71 on Tuesday. Grayson Allen was the game’s leading scorer with 30 points on 7-for-16 shooting. The Tar Heels, meanwhile, are coming off a 75-70 win over Syracuse on Monday. Brice Johnson had a good performance, accounting for 14 points and 10 rebounds to claim his 18th double-double of the season.
This matchup figures to be a high-scoring affair as Duke ranks second in the nation in offensive efficiency (120.3), while North Carolina is ninth (117.1). Moreover, foul-shooting opportunities could prove to be quite rare for the Tar Heels. They are 283rd in the nation in FTA rate (32.5), while the Blue Devils are among the nation’s least foul-prone teams (allowing a rate of just 24.9, ranking fifth in the country).
This is the second game of the year between these two teams, with the Blue Devils winning the first matchup 74-73. In the loss, Johnson had a double-double with 29 points and 19 rebounds.
The Blue Devils are hoping to build on their records of 22-8 Straight Up (SU) and 14-14-1 Against The Spread (ATS). The Blue Devils have one of the most prolific offenses in the entire nation, averaging 81.5 points per game. Duke is excellent from the perimeter with 270 three-pointers made (9.0 per game), the 35th-most in the country. Duke is one of the most disciplined teams in the nation with an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.32. As for the Duke defense, teams really have to fight for three-pointers against the Blue Devils, who have allowed only 6.0 three-pointers to opponents per game.
Over on the other bench, the Tar Heels have a 24-6 SU record, but have struggled ATS with an 11-17-2 record. The Tar Heels rank ninth in the country in scoring, averaging 83.1 points per game. North Carolina is one of the better rebounding teams in Division I. The Tar Heels average 40.7 rebounds per game, making them the 17th-best team in the country for that category. When it comes to making good decisions with the ball, not many are better than the Tar Heels. They have one of the top assist-to-turnover ratios in the country at 1.69.
With the Blue Devils’ last win against North Carolina, their SU record against North Carolina moves to 8-2 over their most recent meetings. The Blue Devils also hold the advantage ATS with a record of 6-4. Neither team was able to hold the edge in field goals, rebounds, or three-pointers over the course of their latest five contests.
Predictions: SU Winner – Duke, ATS Winner – Duke
Notes
Duke is one of the top-scoring teams in the nation, averaging 81.5 points per game (ranked 15th). North Carolina, on the other hand, allows 70.6 points per game (ranked 121st).
Duke is one of the top-scoring teams at home, averaging 84.7 points per game (ranked 16th). North Carolina, on the other hand, allows 75.1 points per away game (ranked 155th).
The Duke Blue Devils have the second-best offensive rating in the nation (120.3). The North Carolina Tar Heels have a defensive rating of 100.5 (ranked 87th).
The North Carolina Tar Heels average 71.0 possessions per game and 1.171 points per possession. The Duke Blue Devils earn fewer possessions with 67.7, but they score more points with 1.203.
The Duke Blue Devils average an effective field goal percentage of 54.1% this season. The North Carolina Tar Heels have split their games this season (1-1) when opponents have an eFG% of 54.1% or greater.
This season, Duke attempts 23.0 three pointers per game and North Carolina attempts 17.0. In games where they have 20 or more three point attempts, the Duke Blue Devils are 17-7 while the North Carolina Tar Heels are undefeated at 9-0.
The third-ranked team in the category, North Carolina has an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.69 this season. Duke ranks 47th with an A/TO of 1.32.
Ranked 17th in the nation, North Carolina averages 40.7 rebounds per game. Duke ranks lower at 149th with 36.6 RPG.
When it comes to offensive rebounds, North Carolina ranks 13th. Duke ranks 242nd in defensive rebounds.
North Carolina has forced an average turnover percentage of 18.9% this season. Duke is an even 4-4 when its TO% is 18.9% or higher.
