It will be a battle between Pac-12 opponents when the Arizona State Sun Devils (15-15) welcome the No. 25 California Golden Bears (21-9) to Wells-Fargo Arena. The game gets underway at 8:00 pm ET on Saturday, Mar. 5 and will air on ES2 and ES3.
The Sun Devils come into this game on a high note after defeating Stanford 74-64 on Thursday. Savon Goodman led all scorers on the team with 16 points on 6-for-9 shooting. The Golden Bears, meanwhile, are coming off a bitter 64-61 loss at the hands of Arizona on Thursday. Ivan Rabb scored 15 points and recorded 13 rebounds earning his 10th double-double of the season.
Expect this one to be a clinic on boxing out, as two of the nation’s top rebounding teams face off. Arizona State is among the nation’s best on the offensive glass, ranking 34th in OR% at 31.8%. Meanwhile, California ranks 13th in the nation at corralling defensive boards with a DR% of 74.4%. Moreover, the Golden Bears are among the nation’s elite on the offensive backboards, ranking 23rd in OR% at 33.1%. But the Sun Devils rank 33rd at corralling defensive rebounds with a DR% of 71.9%.
This will be the second matchup of the season between these two teams. The Golden Bears won the first game 75-70. Rabb was a standout player in the game, producing 20 points, eight rebounds, six assists, and three blocks.
The Sun Devils are looking to improve on their records of 15-15 Straight Up (SU) and 13-15-1 Against The Spread (ATS). Over their last 10 games, they have had success covering the spread (8-2). Arizona State’s defense has put it all together in the past 10 games. Its average points allowed per game dropped to 66.7 during that span, compared to its 74.1 season average.
As for their opponent, California has a SU record of 21-9 and an ATS record of 18-12. California is one of the better rebounding teams in Division I. The Golden Bears average 40.4 rebounds per game, making them the 21st-best team in the country for that category. Shifting to the other side of the court, the Golden Bears allow just 66.6 points per game, ranking them 47th in the nation. The California defense has been a problem for competitors, allowing only .390 shooting from the field to its opponents. Blocking shots is an area where California has excelled. The Golden Bears average 4.9 blocks per game, making them one of the best in the nation.
In their previous meeting this season, California beat Arizona State, bringing the head-to-head record to an even 5-5 SU over their most recent meetings. The Sun Devils hold the advantage ATS with a record of 5-4-1. When it comes to field goals, rebounds, and three-pointers, Arizona State held the edge in all three of these categories twice in the last five meetings. California did so once.
Predictions: SU Winner – Cal, ATS Winner – Cal
Notes
Arizona State scores an average of just 73.8 points per game (ranked 130th). California ranks 47th in points allowed, giving up 66.6 points per game.
In its last game, California lost by a margin of three points. Arizona State is 3-2 in games decided by a margin of three points or less. California has a 2-3 record in close games.
The California Golden Bears rank 80th for their offensive rating of 110.2. The Arizona State Sun Devils have a defensive rating of 106.4 (ranked 77th).
California has an average field goal percentage of 46.5%. Arizona State is a poor 4-11 when opponents have a similar or higher field goal percentage.
The Arizona State Sun Devils rank lower for their field goal percentage (285th) than they do for their effective field goal percentage (257th), but the California Golden Bears have a better FG% ranking (60th) than eFG% ranking (67th).
California, the 34th-ranked team in blocked shots, registers an average of 4.9 per game. Arizona State does worse, ranked 264th with 2.7.
California is one of the top defensive rebounding teams, ranking 12th. Arizona State ranks 62nd in offensive rebounding.
Arizona State averages a forced turnover rate of 18.7% this season. California has a 9-7 record when it suffers a turnover rate equal to or exceeding this.
