The No. 11-ranked Louisville Cardinals (23-7) visit Virginia to play the No. 4-ranked Cavaliers (23-6) in a game that has the potential to be low-scoring. The game gets underway at 8:30 pm ET on Saturday, Mar. 5 and will air on ESP and ES3.
The Cavaliers beat Clemson 64-57 on Tuesday. Malcolm Brogdon was the team’s high scorer with 18 points on 6-for-14 shooting. The Cardinals, meanwhile, are coming off a 56-53 win over Georgia Tech on Tuesday. Chinanu Onuaku had a good game, posting 17 points and 11 rebounds to claim his 11th double-double of the season.
Over the last five games, Brogdon has been playing at a high level for the Cavaliers. During that stretch, he has averaged 22.4 points, 3.8 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 1.2 steals, and 3.2 three-pointers. Onuaku has also been on a tear in the same span, averaging 12.0 points, 10.0 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 1.0 steal, and 2.2 blocks while leading the Cardinals.
The game should be a battle of strength against strength, as the high-octane offense of Virginia (16th in the nation with an offensive efficiency of 116.0) takes on the top-notch defense of Louisville (third in the nation with a defensive efficiency of 92.5). Also, the Cardinals’s 27th-ranked offense (offensive efficiency of 114.7) will face off against the 26th-ranked defense of the Cavaliers (defensive efficiency of 98.4).
This will be the second matchup of the season between these two teams. The Cavaliers won the first game 63-47. Brogdon was a top performer in the victory with 13 points, four rebounds, three assists, two steals, one block, and one three-pointer.
The Cavaliers are attempting to build on their records of 23-6 Straight Up (SU) and 14-13 Against The Spread (ATS). The Cavaliers are an impressive shooting team from the line with a .760 free throw percentage, one of the highest marks in Division I. The Cavaliers, sporting the seventh-best assist-to-turnover ratio in Division I (1.57), have proven themselves to be an extremely efficient offensive team. As for the Virginia defense, teams routinely struggle to score points against the Cavaliers, who allow only 58.5 points per home game. Teams really have to fight for three-pointers against the Cavaliers, who have allowed only 6.0 three-pointers to opponents per game.
On the other side, the Cardinals head into the game with records of 12-13-1 ATS and 23-7 SU. Most recently, Louisville is 7-3 ATS over the last 10 games. During the last 10 games, they averaged 66.6 PPG, below their 75.9 PPG season average. The Cardinals are one of the top defensive teams in the nation, essentially shutting down opponents to the tune of 60.9 points allowed per game. Louisville’s three-point defense is one of the top in the country, with opponents making only 5.0 shots from the three-point line per game.
Following the Cavaliers’ latest win over the Cardinals, their SU record rises to 2-1 over Louisville. However, Louisville leads the matchup ATS with a record of 2-1.
Predictions: SU Winner – Lou, ATS Winner – Lou
Notes
Virginia scores an average of just 70.8 points per game (ranked 185th). Louisville ranks sixth in points allowed, giving up 60.9 points per game.
Virginia scores just 74.0 points per home game (ranked 172nd). Louisville ranks 76th in points allowed on the road, giving up 71.4 points.
In its last game, Louisville won by a margin of three points. Virginia is 2-3 in games decided by a margin of three points or less. Louisville has a 1-1 record in close games.
The Louisville Cardinals rank 27th for their offensive rating of 114.7. The Virginia Cavaliers have a defensive rating of 98.4 (ranked 26th).
Virginia has the 13th-ranked average field goal percentage at 48.9%. Louisville has not won a game this season when opponents have a similar or higher field goal percentage (0-2).
The Virginia Cavaliers and the Louisville Cardinals both rank higher in average field goal percentage when compared to their effective field goal percentages. Virginia is 26th and 13th in the nation for eFG% and FG% respectively, while Louisville ranks 69th and 31st in these categories.
Virginia ranks 96th in assists, registering 14.6 per game. Louisville performs worse at 158th with 13.6 assists per game.
Louisville, the 34th-ranked team in blocked shots, registers an average of 4.9 per game. Virginia does worse, ranked 227th with 3.0.
When it comes to offensive rebounds, Louisville ranks 20th. Virginia ranks 321st in defensive rebounds.
Though Louisville is one of the best in the country in forcing turnovers with opponents averaging a TO% of 21.8% (ranked eighth), Virginia has a winning 2-1 record SU when it has a TO% of 21.8% or greater.
