The 75th-ranked offense of the No. 24-ranked SMU Mustangs (25-4) visit Cincinnati to play the 22nd-ranked defense of the Bearcats (21-9). The game starts at 12:00 pm ET on Sunday, Mar. 6 and will air on CBS.
The Bearcats lost to Houston 69-56 on Thursday. Troy Caupain finished with 19 points to lead the game. The Mustangs, meanwhile, are coming off an 80-54 win over Connecticut on Thursday. Sterling Brown led the team in scoring with 20 points on 9-for-11 shooting.
Points could be at a premium in this matchup between two of the nation’s best defenses. Cincinnati ranks third in the nation in defensive efficiency (92.9), while SMU is 22nd (96.9). Also, the elite offense of the Mustangs ranks 15th in eFG% at 55.8%, while the Bearcats are 12th-best in the nation at forcing opponents’ misses (45.2%).
This will be the second matchup of the season between these two teams. The Mustangs won the first game 59-57. In the loss, Gary Clark had a double-double with 13 points and 11 rebounds.
The Bearcats are attempting to build on their records of 21-9 Straight Up (SU) and 13-15-1 Against The Spread (ATS). The Bearcats, sporting the 35th-best assist-to-turnover ratio in Division I (1.41), have proven themselves to be an extremely efficient offensive team. Turning to the defensive side, the Bearcats are 26th in the country in steals with 7.9 per game.
On the other side, the Mustangs head into the game with records of 12-13 ATS and 25-4 SU. During the last 10 games, they averaged 70.0 PPG, below their 78.1 PPG season average. SMU is one of the top three-point shooting teams in the nation, converting .427 of their shots from three-point range. The Mustangs are a force on the offensive glass, grabbing an average of 13.2 offensive rebounds per game. When it comes to making good decisions with the ball, not many are better than the Mustangs. They have one of the top assist-to-turnover ratios in the country at 1.46. The SMU defense as a whole has been firing on all cylinders so far, ranking 16th in Division I with only 63.5 points allowed per game. Teams seem to consistently miss shots against the Mustangs, who are the 25th-best team in the nation in terms of opponent field goal percentage allowed at .404.
Following the Mustangs’ latest win over Cincinnati, SMU is still behind in the head-to-head record over their most recent meetings, 2-3 SU. Additionally, with a 3-1-1 record, Cincinnati has the advantage ATS. When it comes to field goals, rebounds, and three-pointers, Cincinnati held the edge in all three of these categories twice in the last five meetings. SMU never did so in those games.
Predictions: SU Winner – Cin, ATS Winner – Cin
Notes
“Cincinnati is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games “.
“Cincinnati is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games “.
“The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati’s last 7 games “.
“Cincinnati is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games at home”.
“Cincinnati is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home”.
Cincinnati sits at 11-6 SU against its conference, while SMU is 13-4 SU.
SMU averages 78.1 points per game this season. Cincinnati is one of the best teams in points allowed, giving up just 61.8 points per game (ranked eighth).
SMU averages 74.6 points per away game (ranked 53rd). Cincinnati allows 63.5 points per home game (ranked 45th).
Ranked 22nd, the SMU Mustangs have one of the top defenses in the country, giving up just 96.9 points per 100 possessions. The Cincinnati Bearcats rank 75th in offense, scoring 110.3 points in the same number of possessions.
The Cincinnati Bearcats average 66.0 possessions per game and 1.103 points per possession, while the SMU Mustangs earn fewer possessions (65.4) but more points per possession (1.195).
The SMU Mustangs have one of the best effective field goal percentages this season, ranking 15th in the country with an eFG% of 55.8%. When their opponents record a similar or higher eFG%, the Cincinnati Bearcats have a losing 1-2 record.
The Cincinnati Bearcats average 21.0 three point attempts per game, and the SMU Mustangs attempt 15.0 per game. When going for at least 20 three pointers in a game this season, both teams have winning records; Cincinnati is 15-7 and SMU is 5-1.
The 24th-ranked team in the category, SMU has an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.46 this season. Cincinnati ranks 35th with an A/TO of 1.41.
Cincinnati ranks 56th in rebounds per game with 38.9 and SMU ranks 44th with 39.3 rebounds per game.
The SMU Mustangs rank 27th in offensive rebounds. The Cincinnati Bearcats rank 138th in the nation in defensive rebounds.
On average, Cincinnati forces a turnover rate of 21.0%, ranked 25th in the nation. When SMU turns over the ball at a similar or higher rate, the team has a fantastic 9-1 record.
