The European Tour moves to Thailand this week for the second edition of the True Thailand Classic. Andrew Dodt won the inaugural event, which is co-sanctioned by the European Tour and the Asian Tour. We’re not expecting many big names like Jordan Spieth or Rory McIlroy as they’re busy with other pursuits this weekend. That makes handicapping the events at the Thailand Classic that much more difficult this week as we have to do some digging.
Event Details
Event: True Thailand Classic
Category: EPGA
Date: March 10-13
Location: Black Mountain Golf Club, Hua Hin, Thailand
Dodt managed to hold off Scott Hend and Thongchai Jaidee to win the inaugural True Thailand Classic a year ago, but there really isn’t much precedent to base other selections for this year’s tournament on. The fact that Dodt is listed as a +100000 long shot to repeat at this year’s tournament is testament to the unknown elements heading in to this year’s event, but we have done our best to break down the field and provide the best bets on the board.
2015 Results
1 – Andrew Dodt -16
T-2 – Scott Hend -15
T-2 – Thongchai Jaidee -15
T-4 – Kiradech Aphibarnrat -14
T-4 – Jason Knutszon -14
T-4 – Richard T Lee -14
What To Know About The Course
The Black Mountain course opened in 2007 but it has quickly gained a reputation as one of the best courses in Thailand and a top-100 course outside of the United States. The question is what it will take to win this event with so many golfers lacking in experience at this course. The tournament stats from last year’s event are hard to trust, especially with the power-hitting Scott Hend having ranked just 31st in Driving Distance when he was a co-runner-up. Length off the tee should be an important factor once again but don’t count on last year’s numbers to break down who will have the biggest edge in that department. The general lack of experience across the board could lead to course knowledge providing a significant edge for some of the home favorites.
The Field
Last year’s other co-runner up Thongchai Jaidee is among those expected to benefit from a strong knowledge of the course, which is why he is listed as the outright betting favorite at +1015 odds. Kiradech Aphibarnrat finished tied for fourth at last year’s tournament and is available at +1815 to win this year’s True Thailand Classic but there isn’t much else there to draw off of from last year’s tournament when it comes to the betting favorites. Joost Luiten is listed at +1250 odds while Thomas Pieters and Peter Uihlein are available at +2050 odds.
A Good Matchup To Bet: Kiradech Aphibarnrat over Joost Luiten
Luiten has looked good early on this season but Aphibarnrat should have the edge at this event in his native Thailand. Aphibarnrat has gotten off to a relatively poor start to the 2016 season but he got married in February so there has been some understandable distractions. Aphibarnrat should be able to regain his focus at a site he has fared well at over the years with course form figures that read 15-3-4. He might not be able to beat out Jaidee for the outright victory but that doesn’t mean he won’t be able to post a better score than Luiten as a strong matchup play this week.
Top Five Prediction Thongchai Jaidee
There is a reason why Jaidee is the outright betting favorite and it doesn’t make sense to overlook him when it comes to the best bet to finish in the top-five. Jaidee has finished inside the top-seven in each of his three starts here and he has become much more consistent on the European Tour overall. Jaidee felt that he should have won last year’s True Thailand Classic but fell just short so he will be highly motivated to finish what he started and pull out the victory this week.
Top 10 Odds To Win True Thailand Classic
Joost Luiten +1250
Thongchai Jaidee +1015
Kiradech Aphibarnrat +1815
Thomas Pieters +2050
Peter Uihlein +2050
Pablo Larrazabal +2550
Alexander Levy +2550
Mikko Ilonen +3050
Kristoffer Broberg +3050
Gregory Bourdy +3250
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