The No.7-seeded Ole Miss Rebels (20-11) take on the No.10-seeded Alabama Crimson Tide (17-13) in the second round of the SEC tournament at Bridgestone Arena. Action starts at 7:00 pm ET on Thursday, Mar. 10 and will air on SEC and ES3.
The Rebels dismantled Tennessee 83-60 in their last game. Sebastian Saiz was a key piece, recording 23 points and 11 rebounds to notch his eighth double-double this season. The Crimson Tide, meanwhile, are feeling some disappointment after the 70-63 loss to Georgia in their last outing. Shannon Hale had a game-high 25 points.
Over the last five games, Stefan Moody has been playing at a high level for the Rebels. During that stretch, he has averaged 24.4 points, 3.0 rebounds, 5.6 assists, 2.0 steals, and 4.0 three-pointers. On the other side, the Crimson Tide have been led by Retin Obasohan. He has been on a tear, averaging 22.8 points, 4.0 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 1.4 steals, and 1.8 three-pointers in the same time frame.
Points could be at a premium in this matchup between two of the nation’s best defenses. Ole Miss ranks 18th in the nation in defensive efficiency (102.7), while Alabama is 16th (101.7). Also, the Crimson Tide commit the 27th-fewest errors in the nation (TO% of 20.4%), while the ball-hawking defense of the Rebels causes the ninth-most (opponents’ TO% of 20.7%).
This is the second game of the year between these two teams, with the Rebels winning the first matchup 74-66. Saiz put up a double-double in the victory with 21 points and 16 rebounds.
The Rebels look to build on their records of 20-11 Straight Up (SU) and 17-13 Against The Spread (ATS). Opposing offenses have been stifled by the Rebels, allowing a field goal percentage of only .425.
In the other locker room, the Crimson Tide head into the game with records of 15-14 ATS and 17-13 SU. The Crimson Tide have one of the best opponent field-goal percentages in the nation at .403.
In their previous meeting this season, Ole Miss beat Alabama, moving its SU record against Alabama to 7-3 in their most recent head-to-head meetings. The Rebels also lead the matchup ATS with a record of 8-2. Alabama held the advantage in field goals, rebounds, and three-pointers once in the last five matchups. On the other side of the court, Ole Miss never accomplished this feat in that span.
Predictions: SU Winner – Miss, ATS Winner – Miss
Notes
In its last game, Ole Miss won by a margin of 23 points. Alabama is 2-3 in games decided by a margin of 18 points or more. Ole Miss has a 2-1 record in blowouts.
The Ole Miss Rebels have a defensive rating of 102.7 (ranked 18th), while the Alabama Crimson Tide have an offensive rating of 100.8 (ranked 265th).
Alabama has an average field goal percentage of 42.4%. Ole Miss is a losing 6-10 when opponents have a similar or higher field goal percentage.
The Ole Miss Rebels and the Alabama Crimson Tide both rank higher in average effective field goal percentage when compared to their field goal percentages. Ole Miss is 285th and 260th in the nation for FG% and eFG% respectively, while Alabama is 258th and 203rd in these categories.
Alabama, the 28th-ranked team in blocked shots, registers an average of 5.1 per game. Ole Miss does worse, ranked 195th with 3.2.
Ole Miss is one of the best teams in the country when it comes to offensive rebounds, ranking 24th. Alabama ranks just 197th in defensive rebounds.
On average, Ole Miss forces a turnover rate of 20.7%, ranked ninth in the nation. When Alabama turns over the ball at a similar or higher rate, the team has a winning 9-5 record.
