The No.16-seeded Southern Jaguars (22-12) face off against the No.16-seeded Holy Cross Crusaders (14-19) in the of the NCAA tournament at University of Dayton Arena. The game begins at 6:40 pm ET on Wednesday, Mar. 16 and will air on TRU.
The Jaguars barely escaped Jackson State 54-53 in the 4 of the Southwestern Athletic tournament. Trelun Banks was the game’s leading scorer with 19 points on 6-for-16 shooting. The Crusaders, meanwhile, are coming off a 59-56 win over Lehigh in the 4 of the Patriot League tournament. Malachi Alexander led the game in scoring with 26 points on 7-for-10 shooting.
Alexander has been hot over the last five games for the Crusaders, averaging 19.0 points, 6.4 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 1.0 steal, and 3.2 three-pointers.
Based on each team’s statistical profile, ball protection could play an integral role in this matchup. Southern commits the 24th-fewest miscues in the nation (TO% of 16.3%), while Holy Cross’s pesky defense forces the 30th-most (opponents’ TO% of 20.1%).
The Jaguars come into this game 22-12 Straight Up (SU) and 3-4 Against The Spread (ATS). They have outperformed expectations over their last 10 games, going undefeated ATS (5-0) and 5-5 SU. The Jaguars have really locked down opponents on the defensive end, ranking 44th in the country with a .415 opponent field-goal percentage.
As for their opponent, the Crusaders have a record of 6-3 ATS and 13-19 SU.
Southern and Holy Cross will be facing off for their first head-to-head game in recent seasons.
Predictions: SU Winner – Sou, ATS Winner – Sou
Notes
The Southern Jaguars have a defensive rating of 100.1 (ranked 59th), while the Holy Cross Crusaders have an offensive rating of 99.8 (ranked 284th).
Southern has an average field goal percentage of 44.6%. Holy Cross is an underachieving 4-15 when opponents have a similar or higher field goal percentage.
The Southern Jaguars rank higher based on their field goal percentage (150th) than their effective field goal percentage (201st). The Holy Cross Crusaders rank higher based on their effective field goal percentage (268th) than their field goal percentage (297th).
Holy Cross ranks 61st in the nation with an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.27. Southern is ranked lower at 230th with an A/TO of .97.
Southern has forced an average turnover percentage of 20.0% this season. Holy Cross has a subpar 2-6 record when its TO% is 20.0% or higher.
