The BNP Paribas Open tennis tournament from Indian Wells marches on to the quarterfinals and so do our tennis picks. In today’s daily preview, we’re going to look at two of the matchups, although we will see one more match on Friday that includes Agnieszka Radwanska and tournament favorite Serena Williams. Williams is a hefty -500 favorite in that matchup and chances are that she cashes. The two players have faced off nine times in their careers and Williams has won every single time. Even though Radwanska is the No. 3 player in the world, she’s clearly several big steps behind Serena in terms of pedigree and she’ll need to do something special to pull the upset.
At any rate, the other players will try to close in on the weekend and a spot in the high-stakes championship match of this 96-player tournament. Here are our tennis picks for Thursday.
Victoria Azarenka vs. Magdalena Rybarikova
Betting Odds: Azarenka -1000
This is a match which should be fairly routine, but Victoria Azarenka is still inconsistent enough to create a match that’s more dramatic than what she’d personally prefer. Azarenka won the first set of her fourth-round match against Samantha Stosur, 6-1, but then lost focus in the second set, losing it by a score of 6-4. Azarenka regrouped in the third set to win it handily, 6-1, which was impressive on one hand, but also baffling on the other. If she could win sets by 6-1 twice, why couldn’t she steadily move through the match instead of going up and then down and then up again? Azarenka is in the quarterfinals, and she’s certainly well ahead of where she was at this time in 2015. However, she still has not yet come all the way back to the point that she is a top-level Grand Slam contender. We might never fully know unless or until we see her play someone in the top five. Rybarikova, a veteran at the age of 27, is very sound and experienced. She knows her way around a court, and what’s more is that when Roberta Vinci retired early in her fourth-round match, Rybarikova got extra rest ahead of this quarterfinal, all while Azarenka had to play three sets. There are some arguments and some details which could lead a bettor to take Rybarikova here. Yet, for all the things we don’t yet know about Azarenka, she is still a more proven player and a more known commodity than Rybarikova is. Azarenka might not deserve to be favored when she gets to the semifinals or final, but in this match, she still has to be viewed as the clear choice. Her reputation and her familiarity with this kind of pressure should help her against a player who is not her equal. Take Azarenka with your tennis picks even though there is plenty of juice.
Pick: Azarenka in straight sets
Daria Kasatkina vs. Karolina Pliskova
Betting Odds: Pliskova -137
This is a matchup which has to make you wary with your tennis picks. On one hand, Pliskova should certainly win this match. She is 23, five years older than Kasatkina. She has been in the top 20 for some time now, and plays a big game which should be able to overwhelm Kasatkina over time. However, if you know anything about Pliskova, it’s that she tosses in some unexpected losses just when she has momentum. She has lost a lot of tournaments from favorable positions in terms of seeding or form. She can lose an advantage just as quickly as she gains one. That’s not the kind of player bettors trust.
Yet, on the other hand, Kasatkina remains 18 years old. Is she really going to make the semifinals of a Premier 5 tournament? As strong as she looked in an easy fourth-round win over Timea Bacsinszky, can she keep up that level of performance for at least another match? It’s possible, but you wouldn’t want to bet on it. Pliskova in three.
Pick: Pliskova in three sets
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