The No.15-seeded UNC Asheville Bulldogs get together with the No.2-seeded Villanova Wildcats in the first round of the NCAA tournament at the Barclays Center. Action begins at 12:40 pm ET on Friday, Mar. 18 and can be seen on TRU.
The Wildcats lost a tough one against Seton Hall 69-67 in the 4 of the Big East tournament. Kris Jenkins finished with 23 points to lead the team. The Bulldogs, meanwhile, are coming off a 77-68 win against Winthrop in the 4 of the Big South tournament. Dwayne Sutton played well, registering 25 points and 18 rebounds to claim his eighth double-double of the season.
Over the last five games, Jenkins has been playing at a high level for the Wildcats, averaging 21.4 points, 4.2 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 0.6 steals, and 4.2 three-pointers. On the other side, the Bulldogs have their own duo that have upped their production in that span. Sutton has averaged 14.8 points, 9.6 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 1.6 steals, 0.8 blocks, and 0.8 three-pointers, while Ahmad Thomas has put up 16.6 points, 7.2 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 3.4 steals, and 0.8 three-pointers.
This matchup pits one of the nation’s top offenses against one of its elite defenses, as Villanova currently ranks 25th in the nation in offensive efficiency and UNC Asheville is 13th in defensive efficiency.
The Wildcats come into this game 29-5 Straight Up (SU) and 16-17 Against The Spread (ATS). They are 7-3 SU and perfect ATS (3-0) in their last 10 games. The Wildcats are a phenomenal shooting team from the line with a .777 free throw percentage, one of the highest marks in Division I. Few teams in the nation have a higher assist-to-turnover ratio than Villanova, which ranks 21st at 1.45. As for the Villanova defense, teams really have to fight for open three-pointers against the Wildcats, who have one of the best opponent three-point field goal percentages in the nation at .335.
On the other side, the Bulldogs have a record of 7-3 ATS and 23-11 SU. UNC Asheville managed to go 8-2 SU over the last 10 games, while only going 3-7 ATS during the same amount of time. Teams seem to consistently miss three-point shots against the Bulldogs, who are the top team in the country in terms of three-point field goal percentage allowed at .284.
This game will be the first meeting for Villanova and UNC Asheville in recent seasons.
Predictions: SU Winner – Vill, ATS Winner – Vill
Notes
“Villanova is 21-3 SU in its last 24 games “.
The Villanova Wildcats rank 25th for their offensive rating of 114.2. The UNC Asheville Bulldogs have a defensive rating of 95.4 (ranked 13th).
The UNC Asheville Bulldogs average 70.1 possessions per game and 1.080 points per possession. The Villanova Wildcats earn fewer possessions with 67.4, but they score more points with 1.142.
The UNC Asheville Bulldogs average an effective field goal percentage of 50.7% this season. The Villanova Wildcats have split their games this season (5-5) when opponents have an eFG% of 50.7% or greater.
The Villanova Wildcats average 24.0 three point attempts per game, while the UNC Asheville Bulldogs attempt 17.0. When attempting 20 or more three pointers in a game, Villanova has a dazzling record of 21-5, while UNC Asheville is an even 5-5.
The 21st-ranked team in the category, Villanova has an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.45 this season. UNC Asheville ranks outside the top 100 at 244th with an A/TO of .96.
UNC Asheville ranks 109th in offensive rebounds, while Villanova ranks at 94th in defensive rebounds.
Though UNC Asheville is one of the best in the country in forcing turnovers with opponents averaging a TO% of 22.5% (ranked fourth), Villanova is undefeated (3-0) when its TO% is 22.5% or greater.
