The No.7-seeded Oregon State Beavers (19-12) challenge the No.10-seeded VCU Rams (24-10) in the first round of the NCAA tournament at Chesapeake Energy Arena. Action gets underway at 1:30 pm ET on Friday, Mar. 18 and can be seen on TNT.
The Beavers fell to California 76-68 in the 2 of the Pac-12 tournament. Derrick Bruce was the game’s leading scorer with 25 points. The Rams, meanwhile, are coming off an 87-74 loss to Saint Joseph’s in the 5 of the Atlantic 10 tournament. JeQuan Lewis had a team-high 19 points.
Based on each team’s statistical profile, ball protection could play an integral role in this matchup. Oregon State commits the 26th-fewest miscues in the nation (TO% of 16.9%), while VCU’s pesky defense forces the seventh-most (opponents’ TO% of 22.0%). Also, the Rams commit the 15th-fewest errors in the nation (TO% of 16.3%), while the disruptive defense of the Beavers causes the 22nd-most (opponents’ TO% of 20.0%).
The Beavers come into this game 19-12 Straight Up (SU) and 16-13-1 Against The Spread (ATS). Over their last 10 games, they have had success covering the spread (7-3). Teams have to fight for open shots against the Beavers, who have one of the best opponent field-goal percentages in the country at .427.
As for their opponent, the Rams have a record of 20-11 ATS and 24-10 SU. The VCU defense has been a problem for competitors, allowing only 5.0 field goals from three-point range per game.
Oregon State and VCU have not played one another in a regular season matchup in recent years.
Predictions: SU Winner – VCU, ATS Winner – VCU
Notes
“Oregon State is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games “.
“The total has gone OVER in 7 of Oregon State’s last 8 games “.
The VCU Rams have a defensive rating of 96.9 (ranked 19th), while the Oregon State Beavers have an offensive rating of 106.2 (ranked 172nd).
VCU beats Oregon State in both possessions per game and points per possession. The Rams average 70.0 possessions and 1.102 points per possession, while the Beavers average 67.9 possessions with 1.062 points per possession.
Oregon State has an average effective field goal percentage of 50.0%. VCU is a solid 10-6 when opponents have a similar or higher effective field goal percentage.
The Oregon State Beavers average 18.0 three point attempts per game, and the VCU Rams attempt 20.0 per game. When going for at least 20 three pointers in a game this season, both teams have winning records; Oregon State is 9-3 and VCU is 12-5.
The VCU Rams rank 59th in offensive rebounds. The Oregon State Beavers rank 276th in the nation in defensive rebounds.
On average, Oregon State forces a turnover rate of 20.0%, ranked 22nd in the nation. When VCU turns over the ball at a similar or higher rate, the team has a superb 6-2 record.
