The No.2-seeded Michigan State Spartans (29-5) and No.15-seeded Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (24-9) square off in the first round of the NCAA tournament at Scottrade Center. Action gets underway at 2:45 pm ET on Friday, Mar. 18 and will air on CBS.
The Spartans beat Purdue 66-62 in the 5 of the Big Ten tournament. Denzel Valentine fueled the Spartans, recording 15 points and 10 rebounds to notch his 11th double-double of the season. The Blue Raiders, meanwhile, are coming off a 55-53 win over Old Dominion in the 5 of the Conference USA tournament. Jaqawn Raymond had a good game for Middle Tennessee, accounting for nine points, three assists, and two rebounds.
Perrin Buford has upped his play over the last five games for the Blue Raiders, averaging 15.6 points, 6.8 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 2.0 blocks, and 0.6 three-pointers.
This battle pits one of the nation’s top offenses against one of its elite defenses, as Michigan State currently ranks fourth in the nation in offensive efficiency and Middle Tennessee is 32nd in defensive efficiency.
The Spartans come into this game 29-5 Straight Up (SU) and 22-11 Against The Spread (ATS). The rebounding edge goes to the Spartans in this matchup, who are one of the top rebounding teams in the nation with an average of 41.9 boards per game. Michigan State is one of the most disciplined teams in the nation with an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.73. The Spartans have really locked down opponents on the defensive end, ranking second in the country with a .377 opponent field-goal percentage.
Across the court, the Blue Raiders have 24-9 SU and 16-16-1 ATS records. Most recently, Middle Tennessee is 8-2 ATS over the last 10 games.
This game marks the first time Michigan State and Middle Tennessee have played one another in recent seasons.
Predictions: SU Winner – MSU, ATS Winner – MSU
Notes
“Michigan State is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 games “.
“Michigan State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games “.
“The total has gone OVER in 8 of Michigan State’s last 12 games “.
The Michigan State Spartans have the fourth-best offensive rating in the nation (119.3). The Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders have a defensive rating of 98.9 (ranked 32nd).
The Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders average 68.6 possessions per game and 1.060 points per possession. The Michigan State Spartans earn fewer possessions with 66.9, but they score more points with 1.193.
Michigan State is ranked ninth in the nation with an average effective field goal percentage of 56.0%. Middle Tennessee has not won a game this season when opponents have a similar or higher effective field goal percentage (0-4).
The Michigan State Spartans average 21.0 three point attempts per game, and the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders attempt 20.0 per game. When going for at least 20 three pointers in a game this season, both teams have winning records; Michigan State is 21-2 and Middle Tennessee is 13-6.
The Michigan State Spartans rank second with an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.73, while the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders rank outside the top 100 (161st) with an A/TO of 1.08.
Ranked fifth in the nation, Michigan State averages 41.9 rebounds per game. Middle Tennessee ranks lower at 127th with 37.0 RPG.
The Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders are among the worst offensive rebounding teams in the nation (ranked 209th), while the Michigan State Spartans are the best defensive rebounding team.
On average, Middle Tennessee forces a turnover rate of 19.7%, ranked 24th in the nation. When Michigan State turns over the ball at a similar or higher rate, the team has an outstanding 8-2 record.
