The No.14-seeded Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks square off against the No.3-seeded West Virginia Mountaineers in the first round of the NCAA tournament at the Barclays Center. Action gets underway at 7:10 pm ET on Friday, Mar. 18 and can be seen on CBS.
The Mountaineers were beaten by Kansas 81-71 in the 4 of the Big 12 tournament. Despite the loss, Devin Williams earned his 15th double-double this season with 31 points and 10 rebounds. The Lumberjacks, meanwhile, are coming off an 82-60 win over Texas A&M-Corpus Christi in the 4 of the Southland tournament. Thomas Walkup was the game’s top scorer, accumulating 19 points on 7-for-11 shooting.
Over the last five games, Walkup has been hot for the Lumberjacks. During that stretch, he has averaged 20.4 points, 8.4 rebounds, 6.0 assists, and 2.8 steals.
Baskets could be hard to come by as West Virginia ranks 11th in the nation, allowing just 95.2 points per 100 possessions, while Stephen F. Austin is second (91.5). Moreover, the Lumberjacks are among the nation’s elite on the offensive backboards, ranking 17th in OR% at 34.8%. But the Mountaineers rank 26th at corralling defensive rebounds with a DR% of 72.8%.
The Mountaineers have gone 26-8 Straight Up (SU) and 21-11 Against The Spread (ATS). Over their last 10 games, they are perfect both SU and ATS. The rebounding edge goes to the Mountaineers in this matchup, who are one of the top rebounding teams in the nation with an average of 39.2 boards per game.
Over on the other bench, the Lumberjacks have a record of 3-4 ATS and 27-5 SU. Stephen F. Austin has done particularly well ATS over its past 10 matchups, going 7-3. The Lumberjacks rarely make costly errors handling the ball. They have the 10th-best assist-to-turnover ratio in the country at 1.52. Stephen F. Austin’s three-point defense has set the standard for the country, with opponents making a Division I-low 165 shots from the three-point line (5.0 per game).
West Virginia and Stephen F. Austin have not played one another in a regular season matchup in recent years.
Predictions: SU Winner – SFA, ATS Winner – SFA
Notes
“West Virginia is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games “.
The Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks have the best defense in the country, giving up just 91.5 points per 100 possessions. The West Virginia Mountaineers rank 51st in offense, scoring 112.2 points in the same number of possessions.
The West Virginia Mountaineers average 70.6 possessions per game and 1.122 points per possession, while the Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks earn fewer possessions (69.4) but more points per possession (1.163).
Stephen F. Austin has the 19th-ranked average effective field goal percentage in the nation at 55.0%. West Virginia is an even 5-5 when opponents have a similar or higher effective field goal percentage.
Stephen F. Austin ranks among the best in the nation in assists at second (18.9 assists per game). West Virginia is ranked 83rd with 14.8 assists per game.
West Virginia, the 44th-ranked team in rebounding, register an average of 39.2 rebounds per game. Stephen F. Austin does worse, ranked 221st with 35.3.
The Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks rank 90th in offensive rebounds. The West Virginia Mountaineers rank 313th in the nation in defensive rebounds.
Though West Virginia is one of the best in the country in forcing turnovers with opponents averaging a TO% of 25.7% (ranked second), Stephen F. Austin is undefeated (1-0) when its TO% is 25.7% or greater.
