The No.6-seeded Texas Longhorns (20-12) and No.11-seeded Northern Iowa Panthers (22-12) square off in the first round of the NCAA tournament at Chesapeake Energy Arena. The game starts at 9:50 pm ET on Friday, Mar. 18 and can be seen on TBS.
The Longhorns were beaten by Baylor 75-61 in the 2 of the Big 12 tournament. Kerwin Roach Jr. had a good outing, contributing 13 points, six rebounds, and two steals for Texas. The Panthers, meanwhile, are coming off a 56-54 win against Evansville in the 4 of the Missouri Valley tournament. Jeremy Morgan played well for Northern Iowa, recording 14 points, four rebounds, and four blocks.
Baskets could be hard to come by as Texas ranks 21st in the nation, allowing just 101.8 points per 100 possessions, while Northern Iowa is 12th (98.7). Also, the Panthers commit the fifth-fewest errors in the nation (TO% of 15.5%), while the gambling defense of the Longhorns causes the 13th-most (opponents’ TO% of 18.8%).
The Longhorns have gone 20-12 Straight Up (SU) and 16-15 Against The Spread (ATS). In their last 10 games, they are 8-1-1 ATS.
On the other side, the Panthers have 22-12 SU and 19-13-1 ATS records. The Panthers convert their free throws at a high percentage, ranking 18th in the nation at .753. Moving on to the Northern Iowa defense, the Panthers have one of the best opponent field-goal percentages in the nation at .422.
Texas and Northern Iowa have not played one another in a regular season matchup in recent years.
Predictions: SU Winner – Tex, ATS Winner – Tex
Notes
“Texas is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games “.
“The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Texas’s last 5 games “.
Northern Iowa won its last game by a two-point margin. In games decided by a margin of three points or less, Texas is 5-2. Northern Iowa is 5-3 in close games this season.
The Texas Longhorns have a defensive rating of 101.8 (ranked 21st), while the Northern Iowa Panthers have an offensive rating of 107.3 (ranked 143rd).
Northern Iowa has an average field goal percentage of 45.7%. Texas is a poor 3-7 when opponents have a similar or higher field goal percentage.
The Texas Longhorns rank higher based on their field goal percentage (216th) than their effective field goal percentage (222nd). The Northern Iowa Panthers rank higher based on their effective field goal percentage (39th) than their field goal percentage (89th).
Northern Iowa ranks 85th in the nation with an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.22. Texas is ranked lower at 138th with an A/TO of 1.11.
On average, Texas makes 5.2 steals per game. Northern Iowa has a winning 11-7 record when it gives up at least 5 steals.
