The ATP’s Indian Wells tournament goes into the semifinals and so do our tennis picks. We had a mixed bag of results on the men’s side in the previous round as we went 1-1. Novak Djokovic was a massive -833 favorite against Joe-Wilfried Tsonga and while he pushed Nole, he couldn’t get the job done. Djokovic needed a tiebreaker in each set but managed to win 7-6, 7-6. As for our other pick, we had Rafael Nadal going down to Kei Nishikori but it looks like Nadal’s resurgence has been for real. He also won in straight sets as he disposed of Nishikori 6-4, 6-3.
For the semis, one of the matches is definitely the undercard and the other one is definitely the main event. Will one match be more dramatic than the other, or will these both feature about the same level of competitiveness? Here are our tennis picks for the semifinals:
Milos Raonic vs. David Goffin
Betting Odds: Raonic -435
This should be a match with very little intrigue. Raonic is a player who has made major semifinals twice before, something Goffin has never done. Raonic has twice made the final of a Masters 1000 event, which is what Indian Wells is. Goffin has never made a Masters 1000 final. Raonic has shown better form this year, having made a run to the Australian Open semifinals and taking a one-set lead over Andy Murray before an injury slowed him down in the fourth set. Raonic didn’t really lose because of his tennis. He lost because he got hurt. Now that Raonic is healthy again, he has rolled into the semifinals. His best match was a straight-set win over Tomas Berdych in the fourth round. Goffin was two points away from losing to Stan Wawrinka in the earlier rounds of this tournament, and Wawrinka had an easy smash putaway at 5-5 in the final-set tiebreaker. However, Wawrinka somehow missed the smash, and Goffin won the next point to take the match. He then managed to avoid a letdown in the quarterfinals by beating Marin Cilic. Goffin should be very happy with his run. He’s gained a lot of points and money this week, and he should be satisfied with what he’s done. Raonic is a player who should not be satisfied. He wants to build to No. 1. He wants to win a Masters title. He wants to eventually be a major champion. These players do not have the same expectations. Raonic has a much bigger serve, and his groundstrokes are solid enough to enable him to play Goffin even from the baseline. What is it about Goffin that gives him a better than average chance at winning here?
Nothing. Goffin has no unique weapon that should be able to bother Raonic. This match is in Raonic’s hands, and he should win in straight sets. Take Raonic with your tennis picks.
Pick: Raonic in straight sets
Rafael Nadal vs. Novak Djokovic
Betting Odds: Djokovic -667
There is a buzz in the air in Southern California over this match. It’s yet another chance for Nadal to test and measure himself against the World No. 1 in ATP tennis. Djokovic has not been at his best in Indian Wells. He got taken to a pair of tiebreakers by Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the quarterfinals. He has not been quite as clinical or as overpowering as he had been in Australia. Yet, compared to Nadal, Djokovic is still in possession of the upper hand. Nadal has done very well to fight his way to the semifinals, but so many of the players in men’s tennis right now lack Djokovic’s sure-footed presence on court. Djokovic just doesn’t allow winnable matches to slip through his fingers. Even when he struggles, he finds the way to victory. Djokovic wins might not be automatic, but they sure are regular. Djokovic just doesn’t take opponents for granted, and that shouldn’t change with Nadal. Djokovic in straight sets is the best pick. Take Djokovic with your tennis picks in this spot.
Pick: Djokovic in straight sets
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