The No.3-seeded Texas A&M Aggies face off against the No.11-seeded Northern Iowa Panthers in the second round of the NCAA tournament at Chesapeake Energy Arena. The game begins at 7:40 pm ET on Sunday, Mar. 20 and can be seen on TRU.
The Aggies won big over Green Bay 92-65 in the First Round. Tonny Trocha-Morelos had 15 points, six rebounds, and four assists for Texas A&M. The Panthers, meanwhile, are coming off a 75-72 win over Texas in the First Round. Jeremy Morgan stood out, posting 16 points, three rebounds, and two assists.
Points could be at a premium in this matchup between two of the nation’s best defenses. Texas A&M ranks fifth in the nation in defensive efficiency (96.0), while Northern Iowa is 20th (99.2). Also, the Panthers commit the sixth-fewest errors in the nation (TO% of 15.5%), while the ball-hawking defense of the Aggies causes the fourth-most (opponents’ TO% of 21.2%).
The Aggies come into this game 27-8 Straight Up (SU) and 17-12-2 Against The Spread (ATS). Over their last 10 games, they have had success covering the spread (8-1-1). The Aggies have a distinct advantage on the boards in this matchup. They are the 48th-ranked rebounding team in Division I, averaging 39.1 per game, while the Panthers rank 346th in the nation with 30.1 per game. Texas A&M is one of the most disciplined teams in the nation with an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.40.
On the other side, the Panthers head into the game with records of 20-13-1 ATS and 23-12 SU. Northern Iowa has done particularly well ATS over its past 10 matchups, going 8-2. The Panthers are shooting lights out from the foul line so far, with a .754 free throw percentage that ranks 16th in Division I. The Northern Iowa defense has been a problem for competitors, allowing only .423 shooting from the field to its opponents.
Texas A&M and Northern Iowa have not played one another in a regular season matchup in recent years.
Predictions: SU Winner – TexA&M, ATS Winner – TexA&M
Notes
In its last game, Northern Iowa won by a margin of three points. Texas A&M is 5-3 in games decided by a margin of three points or less. Northern Iowa has a 6-3 record in close games.
The Texas A&M Aggies have a defensive rating of 96.0 (ranked fifth), while the Northern Iowa Panthers have an offensive rating of 107.7 (ranked 128th).
Northern Iowa has an average field goal percentage of 45.8%. Texas A&M is a solid 6-3 when opponents have a similar or higher field goal percentage.
The Texas A&M Aggies and the Northern Iowa Panthers both rank higher in average effective field goal percentage when compared to their field goal percentages. Texas A&M is 116th and 110th in the nation for FG% and eFG% respectively, while Northern Iowa is 79th and 38th in these categories.
Ranked 14th in the nation, Texas A&M has an average of 16.9 assists per game. Northern Iowa ranks lower at 276th with 11.8.
Texas A&M, the 48th-ranked team in rebounding, register an average of 39.1 rebounds per game. Northern Iowa does worse, ranked 346th with 30.1.
Northern Iowa ranks 351st in offensive rebounds, while Texas A&M ranks at 99th in defensive rebounds.
Texas A&M ranks fourth in forced turnovers with an average rate of 21.2%. Northern Iowa has a 3-4 record when it suffers a turnover rate equal to or exceeding this.
