The No.2-seeded San Diego State Aztecs square off against the No.3-seeded Washington Huskies in the second round of the NIT tournament at Viejas Arena at Aztec Bowl. Action gets underway at 11:30 pm ET on Monday, Mar. 21 and will air on ES2 and ES3.
The Aztecs enter this game hoping for similar success after blowing out IPFW 79-55 in the 1. Malik Pope led all scorers with 15 points on 6-for-10 shooting. The Huskies, meanwhile, are coming off a 107-102 win against Long Beach State in the 1. Dejounte Murray led the game in scoring with 30 points on 10-for-16 shooting.
Murray and Andrew Andrews have been hot over the last five games for the Huskies. Murray has averaged 20.8 points, 4.8 rebounds, 4.4 assists, 1.8 steals, and 0.8 three-pointers during that stretch, while Andrews has put up 25.2 points, 5.4 rebounds, 6.0 assists, 1.2 steals, and 2.4 three-pointers.
Points could be at a premium in this matchup between two of the nation’s best defenses. San Diego State ranks first in the nation in defensive efficiency (91.1), while Washington is 17th (102.7). It will also be a tale of two tempos, as the up-tempo Huskies are ranked second in possessions per game with the slow-paced Aztecs at 313th.
The Aztecs are hoping to build on their records of 26-9 Straight Up (SU) and 15-13-3 Against The Spread (ATS). Teams have to fight for open shots against the Aztecs, who have the best opponent field-goal percentage in the country at .369. Washington has a habit of getting in foul trouble (24.1 fouls per game), so expect the Aztecs to get a number of opportunities from the free throw line.
As for their opponent, Washington has a SU record of 19-14 and an ATS record of 18-14. Teams seem to consistently miss shots against the Huskies, who are the 17th-best team in the nation in terms of opponent field goal percentage allowed at .430.
Washington won the last meeting this season between these two teams, bumping its SU record to 3-1. Furthermore, with a 4-0 record, Washington has the advantage ATS.
Predictions: SU Winner – Wash, ATS Winner – Wash
Notes
“San Diego State is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games “.
“The total has gone OVER in 7 of San Diego State’s last 10 games “.
The Washington Huskies have a defensive rating of 102.7 (ranked 17th), while the San Diego State Aztecs have an offensive rating of 103.7 (ranked 218th).
With 65.9 possessions and 1.037 points per possession, the San Diego State Aztecs perform worse on both metrics than the Washington Huskies. Washington averages 78.6 possessions and 1.069 points per possession.
Washington has an average effective field goal percentage of 48.3%. San Diego State is a winning 5-3 when opponents have a similar or higher effective field goal percentage.
San Diego State attempts an average of 18.0 three pointers per game and Washington attempts 22.0. In games where they have 20 or more three point attempts, the San Diego State Aztecs have a dazzling 11-1 record while the Washington Huskies have a 13-11 record.
The Washington Huskies earn the most blocks per game with an average of 6.6. At 10th, the San Diego State Aztecs also rank near the top with 5.5 blocks per game.
When it comes to offensive rebounds, Washington ranks 12th. San Diego State ranks 55th in defensive rebounds.
On average, San Diego State forces a turnover rate of 18.9%, ranked 10th in the nation. When Washington turns over the ball at a similar or higher rate, the team has a winning 11-5 record.
