The No.1-seeded Valparaiso Crusaders play the No.2-seeded Saint Mary’s Gaels in the third round of the NIT tournament at Athletics-Recreation Center. The game gets underway at 7:00 pm ET on Tuesday, Mar. 22 and will air on ESP and ES3.
The Crusaders played well in their last game, beating Florida State 81-69 in the 2. Alec Peters was the game’s leading scorer with 26 points on 9-for-14 shooting. The Gaels, meanwhile, are coming off a 77-65 win over Georgia in the 2. Emmett Naar claimed his second double-double of the season with 15 points and 11 assists.
Over the last five games, Peters has been playing at a high level for the Crusaders. During that stretch, he has averaged 26.8 points, 9.8 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 0.8 blocks, and 3.2 three-pointers. On the other side, the Gaels have been led by Dane Pineau. He has upped his play, averaging 13.2 points, 9.0 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 0.6 steals, and 1.8 blocks in the same time frame.
Baskets could be hard to come by as Valparaiso ranks second in the nation, allowing just 91.4 points per 100 possessions, while Saint Mary’s is ninth (97.7). Also, the upper-echelon offense of the Gaels ranks first in eFG% at 59.0%, while the Crusaders are second-best in the nation at forcing opponents’ misses (43.8%).
The Crusaders enter the game with records of 28-6 Straight Up (SU) and 16-16 Against The Spread (ATS). Valparaiso has an edge in the rebounding department for this game, where it racks up an average of 41.7 rebounds per game. Turning to the defensive side, the Valparaiso defense has been very good, only giving up 62.7 points per game.
Across the court, Saint Mary’s has a SU record of 29-5 and an ATS record of 18-12. Saint Mary’s has a good SU record over the last 10 games (8-2), but have a 3-7 record ATS. When it comes to making good decisions with the ball, nobody is better than the Gaels. They are the top assist-to-turnover ratio team in the country at 1.75. The Saint Mary’s defense has allowed an average of 69.9 points per game during the last 10 games, higher than their season average of 60.9. Saint Mary’s’s defense is one of the top in the nation, with opponents shooting only .408 from the field.
This game marks the first time Valparaiso and Saint Mary’s have played one another in recent seasons.
Predictions: SU Winner – Valpo, ATS Winner – Valpo
Notes
Saint Mary’s averages 74.5 points per game, placing the team just 117th in the nation. Valparaiso ranks ninth in points allowed, giving up 62.7 points per game.
Saint Mary’s scores just 68.5 points per away game (ranked 161st). Valparaiso ranks 18th in points allowed at home, giving up 61.7 points.
The Saint Mary’s Gaels have the top-ranked offense this season, averaging 121.2 points per 100 possessions. The Valparaiso Crusaders have one of the best defenses, allowing 91.4 points in the same number of possessions (ranked second).
The Saint Mary’s Gaels have one of the best field goal percentages this season, ranking first in the nation with a FG% of 50.9%. The Valparaiso Crusaders are undefeated with a 1-0 record in games where opponents have a similar or higher FG%.
The Valparaiso Crusaders rank higher based on their effective field goal percentage (128th) than their field goal percentage (162nd). The Saint Mary’s Gaels rank first for both their FG% and eFG%.
The Saint Mary’s Gaels rank 14th in assists per game, making an average of 16.8. The Valparaiso Crusaders are among the worst in the country with 14.1 assists per game (ranked 125th).
Valparaiso, the 51st-ranked team in blocked shots, records an average of 4.6 per game. Saint Mary’s does worse, ranked 167th with 3.5.
Valparaiso ranks 39th in offensive rebounding. When it comes to defensive rebounds, Saint Mary’s ranks 99th.
The Valparaiso Crusaders make an average of 6.8 steals per game. When the Saint Mary’s Gaels allow 6 or more steals, they are a stellar 9-2.
