The No.5-seeded Indiana Hoosiers square off against the No.1-seeded North Carolina Tar Heels in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA tournament at the Wells Fargo Center. Action starts at 9:57 pm ET on Friday, Mar. 25 and can be seen on TBS.
The Tar Heels easily got past Providence 85-66 in the Second Round. With 21 points and 10 rebounds, Brice Johnson recorded his 21st double-double of the season. The Hoosiers, meanwhile, are coming off a 73-67 win over Kentucky in the Second Round. Thomas Bryant was the team’s top scorer, accumulating 19 points on 6-for-8 shooting.
This battle pits one of the nation’s top offenses against one of its elite defenses, as North Carolina currently ranks ninth in the nation in offensive efficiency and Indiana is eighth in defensive efficiency. Also, the Hoosiers’s second-ranked offense (offensive efficiency of 120.5) will face off against the seventh-ranked defense of the Tar Heels (defensive efficiency of 99.6).
The Tar Heels enter the game with records of 30-6 Straight Up (SU) and 16-18-2 Against The Spread (ATS). Over their last 10 games, they have had success covering the spread (7-3). The Tar Heels are a dangerously accurate shooting team from the line with a .742 free throw percentage, one of the highest marks in Division I. The rebounding edge goes to the Tar Heels in this matchup, who are one of the top rebounding teams in the nation with an average of 41.0 boards per game. The Tar Heels, sporting the third-best assist-to-turnover ratio in Division I (1.63), have proven themselves to be an extremely efficient offensive team.
As for their opponent, the Hoosiers have a record of 19-15 ATS and 27-7 SU. Most recently, Indiana is 7-3 ATS over the last 10 games. Indiana’s three-point defense is one of the top in the country, with opponents making only 6.0 shots from the three-point line per game.
The Hoosiers’ win over North Carolina in their last clash moved their SU record against North Carolina to 2-1. The Hoosiers also hold the advantage ATS with a record of 3-0.
Predictions: SU Winner – UNC, ATS Winner – UNC
Notes
Indiana is one of the highest-scoring teams in the nation, averaging 82.5 points per game (ranked ninth). North Carolina allows 69.4 points per game (ranked 93rd).
Indiana averages 74.6 points per away game (ranked 50th). North Carolina allows 67.0 points per home game (ranked 96th).
The North Carolina Tar Heels rank ninth for their offensive rating of 117.1. The Indiana Hoosiers have a defensive rating of 100.5 (ranked eighth).
North Carolina averages 70.3 possessions per game, scoring 1.171 points on each possession. While Indiana averages fewer possessions per game with 68.5, they score more points per possession with 1.205.
Indiana has an average effective field goal percentage of 58.9%, ranked second in the nation. North Carolina is undefeated (1-0) when opponents have a similar or higher effective field goal percentage.
On average, North Carolina attempts 17.0 three pointers and Indiana attempts 23.0. In games where they have 20 or more three point attempts, the North Carolina Tar Heels are undefeated at 11-0 while the Indiana Hoosiers have a dazzling 20-4 record.
The North Carolina Tar Heels rank third with an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.63, while the Indiana Hoosiers rank outside the top 100 (101st) with an A/TO of 1.18.
The North Carolina Tar Heels are one of the top rebounding teams in the nation with an average of 41.0 per game (ranked 12th). The Indiana Hoosiers are outside the top 100 with 36.9 rebounds per game (ranked 130th).
North Carolina ranks 68th in defensive rebounding. When it comes to offensive rebounds, Indiana ranks 97th.
On average, North Carolina forces a turnover rate of 18.6%, ranked seventh in the nation. When Indiana turns over the ball at a similar or higher rate, the team has a winning 11-5 record.
