The No.1-seeded North Carolina Tar Heels (33-6) and No.2-seeded Villanova Wildcats (34-5) get together in the championship of the NCAA tournament at NRG Stadium. The game begins at 9:19 pm ET on Monday, Apr. 4 and can be seen on TBS.
The Tar Heels come into this game on a high note after topping Syracuse 83-66 in the National Semifinals. Kennedy Meeks had 15 points, eight rebounds, and two steals for North Carolina. The Wildcats, meanwhile, are coming off a 95-51 win over Oklahoma in the National Semifinals. Josh Hart shot 10-for-12 and led in scoring with 23 points.
Brice Johnson has taken his game to another level as of late for the Tar Heels, averaging 20.0 points, 9.6 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 0.8 steals, and 3.0 blocks over the last five games. On the other side, the Wildcats have quite a few players that have upped their production in that same span. The best out of the bunch has been Kris Jenkins, who averaged 15.8 points, 4.8 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 1.4 steals, and 3.0 three-pointers. While Daniel Ochefu (12.0 PTS, 7.4 REB, 2.8 AST, 1.4 STL, and 1.6 BLK) and Ryan Arcidiacono (15.8 PTS, 2.2 REB, 3.2 AST, 1.2 STL, and 2.8 3PM) have also been superb.
This matchup pits one of the nation’s top offenses against one of its elite defenses, as North Carolina currently ranks fifth in the nation in offensive efficiency and Villanova is first in defensive efficiency. Also, the Wildcats’s 13th-ranked offense (offensive efficiency of 116.5) will face off against the second-ranked defense of the Tar Heels (defensive efficiency of 100.9).
The Tar Heels enter the game with records of 33-6 Straight Up (SU) and 19-18-2 Against The Spread (ATS). The Tar Heels are an incredibly accurate shooting team from the line with a .748 free throw percentage, one of the highest marks in Division I. The rebounding edge goes to the Tar Heels in this matchup, who are one of the top rebounding teams in the nation with an average of 40.7 boards per game. North Carolina is one of the most disciplined teams in the nation with an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.66. North Carolina’s defense has put it all together in the past 10 games. Its average points allowed per game dropped to 64.0 during that span, compared to its 69.8 season average. The Tar Heels prevent teams from making three-pointers, ranking second in the nation with a .359 opponent field-goal percentage from three-point range.
As for their opponent, Villanova has a SU record of 34-5 and an ATS record of 21-17. Villanova performed well ATS during its last 10 games, earning an 8-2 record. They sport the 49th-ranked scoring offense in the country, averaging 78.0 points per game. The Wildcats convert their free throws at a high percentage, ranking second in the nation at .782. When it comes to making good decisions with the ball, not many are better than the Wildcats. They have one of the top assist-to-turnover ratios in the country at 1.47. Switching gears to the Villanova defense, the Wildcats allow the fewest opponent three-pointers made in the country with 274 (7.0 per game).
This game will be the first meeting for North Carolina and Villanova in recent seasons.
Predictions: SU Winner – UNC, ATS Winner – UNC
Notes
Villanova averages 78.0 points per game (ranked 49th). North Carolina, on the other hand, allows 69.8 points per game (ranked 101st).
Villanova scores 75.2 points per away game (ranked 42nd). North Carolina ranks a poor 112th in points allowed at home, allowing 67.9 points.
The Villanova Wildcats have the best defense in the nation, with a defensive rating of 94.8. The North Carolina offense ranks a solid fifth, with an offensive rating of 118.8.
The North Carolina Tar Heels average 69.8 possessions and 1.188 points per possession in games this season. The Villanova Wildcats average fewer possessions with 66.9, as well as fewer points per possession with 1.165.
Villanova has an average effective field goal percentage of 55.8%, ranked 11th in the nation. North Carolina is a winning 2-1 when opponents have a similar or higher effective field goal percentage.
On average, North Carolina attempts 17.0 three pointers and Villanova attempts 24.0. In games where they have 20 or more three point attempts, the North Carolina Tar Heels are undefeated at 12-0 while the Villanova Wildcats have an exceptional 22-5 record.
The North Carolina Tar Heels are among the best in the nation with an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.66 (ranked third). Ranking 15th, the Villanova Wildcats have an A/TO of 1.47.
The North Carolina Tar Heels are one of the top rebounding teams in the nation with an average of 40.7 per game (ranked 14th). The Villanova Wildcats are outside the top 100 with 34.9 rebounds per game (ranked 241st).
Villanova ranks 300th in offensive rebounds, while North Carolina ranks at 83rd in defensive rebounds.
On average, North Carolina forces a turnover rate of 18.4%, ranked second in the nation. When Villanova turns over the ball at a similar or higher rate, the team has a tremendous 13-1 record.
