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NCAAF Picks: BYU Tries To Get A Big Road Win Against An Injured Texas Team

The BYU Cougars beat the Texas Longhorns last year at home in Provo, Utah. Can Brigham Young win this year in Austin, Texas? It would be a big step forward for the program.

BYU Cougars @ Texas Longhorns

Saturday, September 6th – 7:35 PM ET

Odds: Texas -1

Why The Cougars Will Cover

They are in a good position to win this game, specifically because they’ve gained the right mixture of being tested and healthy.

Last Friday night against Connecticut, BYU played without a bunch of regular players. Tailback Jamaal Williams and wide receiver Devon Blackmon were suspended for the school’s honor code violations of Mormon principles and requirements. Defensive tackle Marques Johnson and starting cornerbacks Jordan Johnson and Robertson Daniel also were suspended for unspecified violations of team rules. Receiver Nick Kurtz missed the game due to a stress fracture in his foot. The Cougars, though, won easily against Connecticut, anyway, and as a result, they have given a lot of second-string players some valuable experience in the process. BYU has increased the depth on its roster and no longer has to wonder if the various members of its depth chart (in the backup slots) can play. That’s going to give a lot of confidence to the team and will give the coaching staff more freedom in terms of being able to play different combinations of players. This should really have a benefit in an early season game, especially on the road. BYU has more options to work with, and that fact can’t be ignored.

What should also be mentioned is that Texas is not in good shape for this game. The Longhorns had to announce that quarterback David Ash has suffered a concussion and won’t play in this game. Tyrone Swoopes will be the backup. The Longhorns will also be without starting center Dominic Espinosa, who was expected to anchor their offensive line.

Why The Longhorns Will Cover

They are playing a team that just hasn’t done well on the road in recent years. The Cougars of BYU have played a lot of high-profile road games over the past two seasons in particular, a product of the fact that BYU no longer plays in the Mountain West Conference and is now an independent. The Cougars have visited Notre Dame, Wisconsin, and Boise State the past two seasons and were not able to win any of those games, losing to Notre Dame twice. This team is shaky away from home and does not get the consistency on offense it needs. This is a stop-and-start offense that can be great on one day but horrible the next. Texas has a defense that allowed only 94 yards to North Texas in the Longhorns’ season opener this past Saturday. If that defense can generate pressure on BYU star quarterback Taysom Hill, keeping the fleet-footed talent in the pocket and preventing him from running for first downs, Texas can stay close even without its best offensive players.

Outlook

If Texas can stay close, it could steal this game in the fourth quarter. However, the injuries to Ash and Espinosa (which are why there’s no betting line for this game) are likely to be too severe for Texas’ offense to recover from.

Pick: BYU

Written by Geoff Harvey

Geoff Harvey has been creating odds and betting models since his days in the womb, just don't ask him how he used to get his injury reports back then. Harvey contributes a wealth of quality and informational content that is a valuable resource for any handicapper.

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