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NCAAF Picks: Ohio State, Having Passed One Test, Tries To Pass Another

The Ohio State Buckeyes got by Navy in the opening weekend of the college football season. They now come home to play a team with a very tough defense.

Virginia Tech Hokies @ Ohio State Buckeyes

Saturday, September 6th – 8:05 PM ET

Odds: Ohio State -11.5

Why The Hokies Will Cover

They have one of the best defensive coordinators in the country, and they’re going against an Ohio State team whose offense is vulnerable in the face of a really good defense. Virginia Tech defensive coordinator Bud Foster has been at coach Frank Beamer’s side for decades with the Hokies. Foster hasn’t tried to get jobs elsewhere. He hasn’t left the program or made any kinds of overtures. He’s loyal to Beamer, and he might be a coach in waiting at Virginia Tech if Beamer decides to retire. For now, Foster is still the leader of the Hokies’ defense, the constant for the program no matter how good or bad the offense might be for the team. Foster knows how to disguise coverages and send blitzes to frustrate and rattle opposing quarterbacks. He’s been doing the job for a long time, and he’s never really shown any signs of genuine slippage.

Combine all this with the fact that Ohio State is working with a backup quarterback, J.T. Barrett, who is filling in for superstar Braxton Miller, injured for the entire season due to an injury suffered in the month of August. Foster has a game of film on Barrett, Ohio State’s season opener against Navy. He can look at Barrett’s tendencies and come up with a plan to shut down the Buckeyes’ running game. Ohio State will probably throw a lot of short, safe passes to get Barrett into the game, but without big plays and long gains, the Buckeyes’ offense could find itself overwhelmed.

Why The Buckeyes Will Cover

They are playing at home and at night, which should really help them out and give them a boost. The fact that Miller is not the quarterback means that Ohio State fans should be extra vocal in trying to intimidate Virginia Tech’s offense and make it as hard as possible for the Hokies to hear each other in the huddle and at the line of scrimmage. Virginia Tech has a new quarterback this season, Michael Brewer, and this is going to be the first big test of his season. It’s really hard to trust a new quarterback in a stadium with over 90,000 people. It’s also hard to trust that player when his offensive line is coming off a season in which it was one of the weaker components of the Hokie roster. Virginia Tech has to be able to make great strides on offense, but are the Hokies really ready to make the jump? Urban Meyer and the rest of the Ohio State coaching staff have had a chance to work with their players, including Barrett, on how to grow into their roles this week. The Buckeyes got a really good test from Navy and should be thoroughly prepared.

Outlook

If Ohio State’s offense is going to be inconsistent (and it probably will be against Virginia Tech’s defense), Virginia Tech’s offense is going to have a far more difficult time scoring anything against Ohio State’s defense. The Buckeyes will start slowly, but they’ll pull away late to win and cover.

Pick: Ohio State -11.5

Written by Geoff Harvey

Geoff Harvey has been creating odds and betting models since his days in the womb, just don't ask him how he used to get his injury reports back then. Harvey contributes a wealth of quality and informational content that is a valuable resource for any handicapper.

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