The ATP’s U.S. Men’s Clay Court Championship tournament gets underway with first round play at the River Oaks Country Club, so let’s get it started with our tennis picks. The action got underway on Monday as we already saw some men go through to the next round. Heyon Chung needed three sets, but he eventually squeaked past Victor Estrella by a scoreline of 6-4, 6-7, 6-0. Estrella clearly faded in the third set when he couldn’t even win a single match. We also saw Juan Monaco win in three sets over Gerald Melzer, and we saw Denis Kudla get the job done in three sets in his showdown with Mischa Zverev. The last two sets of that match were decided in tiebreakers.
This is an unusual event in that you’ll see a few Americans who are not good clay court players take part in the event, probably because they don’t have anything better to do and partly because it’s easier to win on American clay than on European clay. Here are three first-round matches to consider, one of them with just such an American player.
Sam Querrey vs. Reilly Opelka
Betting Odds: Querrey -714
There is no doubt that Sam Querrey is not a very good player on clay surfaces. Querrey is comfortable on hardcourts, having grown up in Southern California and learning to combine a powerful serve with a big forehand, the way so many other Californians took up tennis in recent years. Querrey’s game doesn’t translate as well to clay, but he normally shows up in Houston because the travel isn’t very long or grueling. Entering the tournament is easier than it would be in a clay Masters Series event. He can pick up some money and not have to travel to Europe if he doesn’t want to. A few other American players think similarly to him.
In this first match, Querrey probably got a decent turn of fate. Reilly Opelka is an American, which will take some of the edge off in this match. There will be a more relaxed environment because the crowd in Houston will feel less obligated to have to root for one player against another – that would have been the case if Querrey played a non-American. Opelka happens to be a lucky loser here. That means he lost in the qualifying rounds but was able to get into the main draw because a player who had qualified for the main draw had to pull out before playing a single match. Opelka will play with confidence, but Querrey should play without too many nerves. A calm effort from Querrey should be good enough to win.
Pick: Querrey in straight sets
Diego Schwartzman vs. Marcos Baghdatis
Betting Odds: Baghdatis -189
This should be an entertaining and close match. Baghdatis made the final in Dubai on hardcourt in February, so he’s been having a decent year. However, Schwartzman is from Argentina and enjoys a natural comfort zone on clay. Schwartzman is one of a number of players who expect to make money during the portions of the season which take flight on clay. Schwartzman is likely to be the sharper and more motivated player. He’s not more talented, but he has a better chance of playing well here. Take Schwartzman in three with your tennis picks.
Pick: Schwartzman in three sets
Fernando Verdasco vs. Carlos Berlocq
Betting Odds: Verdasco -189
This is a matchup in which could also go either way. Berlocq is a qualifier, so he has won a few matches to get here. He is feeling confident and is definitely in rhythm. He’s gained match play experience and will therefore not be rusty. Verdasco lost relatively early in the hardcourt Miami Open. As he moves to clay, it will be harder to gauge his form. However, Verdasco hits a bigger, better shot than Berlocq does. Trust him to win in three, so take him with your tennis picks.
Pick: Verdasco in three sets
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