Southwest Division foes will collide when the Dallas Mavericks (40-38) challenge the Memphis Grizzlies (42-36) at the American Airlines Center. Action starts at 8:30 pm ET on Friday, Apr. 8 and will air on NBA, FSW and FxS.
The Mavericks won a close one over the Rockets 88-86 on Wednesday. J.J. Barea was the game’s leading scorer with 27 points on 10-for-16 shooting. The Grizzlies, meanwhile, are coming off a 108-92 win over the Bulls on Tuesday. Zach Randolph had a good game, accumulating 27 points and 10 rebounds to claim his 17th double-double of the season.
Barea has taken his game to another level over the last five games for the Mavericks. During that stretch, he has averaged 24.2 points, 3.4 rebounds, 7.0 assists, 0.6 steals, and 3.2 three-pointers. Randolph has also been on a tear in the same span, averaging 21.0 points, 6.8 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 1.0 steal, and 0.5 three-pointers while leading the Grizzlies.
Based on each team’s statistical profile, ball protection could play an integral role in this matchup. The Mavericks commit the second-fewest miscues in the NBA (turnover percentage of 12.6%), while the disruptive defense of Dallas forces the most (opponents’ turnover percentage of 16.2%).
The Mavericks have won two out of three against the Grizzlies this season, including a 114-110 victory in their last matchup. Chandler Parsons scored a game-high 26 points.
The Mavericks come into this game 40-38 Straight Up (SU) and 42-34-2 Against The Spread (ATS). They have the same record SU and ATS against division opponents, going 7-8. The Mavericks are one of the best in the NBA in terms of free throw percentage, shooting a stellar .795 from the free throw line. The Mavericks, sporting the fifth-best assist-to-turnover ratio in the NBA (1.81), have proven themselves to be an extremely efficient offensive team. Memphis has a habit of getting in foul trouble (22.3 fouls per game), so expect the Mavericks to get a number of opportunities from the free throw line.
As for their opponent, Memphis has a SU record of 42-36 and an ATS record of 39-36-3. Memphis has done particularly well ATS over its past 10 matchups, going 7-3.
The Mavericks’ win over Memphis in their last game brought the head-to-head record to an even 5-5 SU over the last 10 meetings. However, with a 6-4 record, the Mavericks have the advantage ATS.
Predictions: SU Winner – Mem
Notes
Dallas scores an average of 102.6 points per game (ranked 14th), while Memphis gives up 100.9 points per game (ranked 10th).
On average, Dallas puts up 104.7 points per home game (ranked 14th), while Memphis allows 100.3 points per away game (ranked sixth).
In games where they allow fewer than 100 points, the Dallas Mavericks are a fantastic 26-5. In games where they fail to hit triple digits, the Memphis Grizzlies have a subpar record of 10-25.
The Dallas Mavericks have a poor 14-33 record in games where they have allowed at least 100 points. The Memphis Grizzlies are 32-11 when they hit triple digits.
The Grizzlies have a defensive rating of 105.6 (ranked 19th). The Mavericks rank 10th for their offensive rating of 105.2.
The Dallas Mavericks average 97.5 possessions and 1.052 points per possession in games this season. The Memphis Grizzlies average fewer possessions with 95.9, as well as fewer points per possession with 1.035.
The Dallas Mavericks average an effective field goal percentage of 50.2% this season. The Memphis Grizzlies have a losing record of 16-29 when opponents have an EFF% of 50.2% or greater.
Dallas attempts an average of 28.0 three pointers per game, and Memphis attempts 18.0 per game. In games where the teams have 25 or more three point attempts, the Mavericks have a 29-28 record while the Grizzlies have a 3-2 record.
Dallas ranks near the top of the league with an assist to turnover ratio of 1.81 (ranked fifth). Memphis is ranked 13th, with an A/TO of 1.63.
The Memphis Grizzlies are one of the worst rebounding teams in the league with just 41.5 per game. Ranked 19th, the Dallas Mavericks average 43.1 rebounds.
Dallas is ranked 11th in defensive rebounds, while Memphis ranks ninth in offensive rebounds.
Memphis is one of the best in the league in forcing turnovers, with opponents averaging a TOV% of 16.2% (ranked first). Dallas is an even 6-6 SU when it has a TOV% of 16.2% or greater.
