One of the amazing things about baseball is how little the game has changed over the years. A result of that consistency over time is that we are able to keep adding to our resource base and handicapping every year. What we add will vary from bettor to bettor but one of the tools that more and more betting pros are using in their handicapping is umpire information. You might like the game best when you barely notice that they are even there, but the “men in blue” definitely do influence the game in many ways that can help us make some money.
Home Teams
Umpires are not supposed to play favorites and many people really do not think that they do. Still, the numbers do not lie: when some umps are behind the plate (really those are the guys who can most influence a game), the home team wins more often than simple randomness suggests. Why this happens is not necessarily easy to explain but the numbers bear it out over time and it could be enough of an edge to push a game into the bet category. The key is identifying which umps will give you the most advantage.
When you take a look at the umpire statistics, the first thing you’ll want to take into account is whether those umpires play favorites. Some of them have a more favorable history to the home team. On the flip side, many of those umpires play favorites in the other direction and are more favorable to the visitors. You’ll want to take that into account as that can shape the outcome.
Over & Unders
When it comes to totals, umpires are definitely an influencing factor. Similar to the above, there is little evidence that umpires favor high scoring games over low scoring ones, or vice versa, but the way they call a game definitely has an impact. How a home plate umpire calls a game will favor either the pitcher or the hitter. Small strikes zones make it easier for the latter as it forces pitchers to really serve it up to get a strike. Also, these kinds of zones generally set up the hitter to be in favorable counts. Think about pitchers who are forced to place the ball in a smaller area: that could lead to more walks, a higher pitch count and more pitches in an area that’s deemed hittable. It might also lead to frustration from the pitcher as he misses those spots and then becomes inaccurate with his other pitches. At any rate, more walks and more hits leads to more base runners and more runs. It’s as simple as that.
Umpires who have small strike zones generally increase the amount of offense in a game.
Conversely, umpires who have a large strike zones limit offense because that style favors the pitcher. Suddenly mediocre hurlers are able to paint the black getting hitters out of their comfort zone and forced to swing at pitches they would normally let go, which induces weak content. Pitchers grow more comfortable in this situation. This also means that starting pitchers get better calls and hit their spots more often, which means that their pitch counts are lower and they’re lasting deeper into the contests. That’s important because it saves the bullpen for when the starters really need it. This does not always lead to more strikeouts but naturally it makes it tougher for hitters to really get after pitchers and hammer mistakes. These kinds of umpires suppress scoring.
Where to Find Information
One good thing about using umpire information in your handicapping is that it is now pretty easy to find. There are lots of websites out there that are keeping track and as the season progresses there will undoubtedly be articles about what we are seeing on the field and how to make money off it. Find a site that tracks all of the statistics like Covers or Don Best, and you’ll get a leg up on your baseball handicapping.
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