The ATP’s Monte Carlo Masters 1000 tournament unrolls a huge day of tennis in the round of 16. Eight matches, all in one day, move the tournament to the quarterfinals along with our tennis picks. Wednesday witnessed the elimination of Novak Djokovic at the hands of Jiri Vesely, the first time Djokovic has failed to make a Masters final since Shanghai in 2014. It was definitely a surprising result. Vesely took the first set 6-4 but when Djokovic bounced back 6-2 in the second set, everyone just assumed he’d roll in the third set. Instead, Vesely surprised and once again showed how vulnerable Djokovic can be on clay. Some other notable results from Wednesday include Stan Wawrinka beating Philipp Kohlschreiber, Benoite Paire topping Joao Sousa, Damir Dzumhur upsetting Tomas Berdych, Dominic Thiem getting by Taro Daniel, Rafael Nadal defeating Aljaz Bedene and David Goffin beating Fernando Verdasco.
But the story is Djokovic’s departure. With him out of the way, the door is wide open for everyone.
Rafael Nadal vs. Dominic Thiem
Betting Odds: Nadal -278
There was already going to be a buzz surrounding this match, because it’s the future of men’s tennis against one of the all-time greats. It’s also a rematch of a clay contest in Buenos Aires from February in which Thiem knocked off Nadal. Now, though, we’re in the heart of the clay season, in Europe. Monte Carlo is a far bigger tournament than Buenos Aires, and all the big players, not just Nadal, are in it.
Now, however, this match is even larger than it was 24 hours ago. Something happened on Wednesday which gives both players a realistic shot at winning the tournament: Novak Djokovic lost in the second round to Jiri Vesely. Djokovic has had such a lock on the ATP Tour of late that it was hard to imagine any other scenario coming true. Djokovic was the runaway favorite for this event, just as he is in any event he plays. Yet, he’s out of the picture, so both the youngster from Austria and the 14-time major champion from Spain know there’s a lot on the line here.
Thiem is an up-and-coming player. He’s probably going to contend for major titles in two to four years with his vicious groundstrokes and all-court ability. However, Nadal knows how important this match is for him, and while he’s not at his best, his run to the semifinals of Indian Wells a few months ago shows he can still compete at a high level. This feels like a match which will be 6-4 or 7-5 in the third set. Give Nadal a slight edge based on experience and take him with your tennis picks.
Pick: Nadal in three sets
Gael Monfils vs. Jiri Vesely
Betting Odds: Monfils -370
This is the matchup no one could have expected. Vesely’s win over Djokovic on Wednesday came from nowhere. The 22-year-old Czech had suffered through a very disappointing season, but he seized a moment of opportunity and played a very strong match in the first and third sets. Vesely wobbled in the second, but when Djokovic gave him chances in the third set, Vesely took advantage of them and used a mixture of deep backhands and well-timed drop shots to catch Djokovic off guard. If Vesely plays well, this will be close, but it will be hard for him to immediately recover from the draining win over Djokovic. Take Monfils in straights. He should cash in for your tennis picks.
Pick: Monfils in straight sets
Gilles Simon vs. Stan Wawrinka
Betting Odds: Wawrinka -217
This is a matchup in which Simon should put up a fight, but Wawrinka wants to play Nadal in the next round, and while he can’t guarantee that Nadal will be there, he can book his own spot. Wawrinka isn’t always a reliable betting choice, but when he digs in and battles, he’s tough to beat. Expect Wawrinka to battle hard in this match and win. Take him with your tennis picks.
Pick: Wawrinka in three sets
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