The NHL Playoffs are upon us. Let’s welcome the best time of the year by taking a preliminary look at the playoff series that lay ahead.
Metropolitan Division: #1 Washington Capitals vs WC2 Philadelphia Flyers
The Philadelphia Flyers are going to surprise a lot of people in this series. They are riding quite a wave of momentum coming into the postseason, besting both the Penguins and the Islanders in the final two games of the season to hurdle over the Boston Bruins and into the Wild Card. They have been very tough to kill in the second half of the season, and some savvy moves by general manager Ron Hextall have gone a long way to ensure that this year is not just a one-time fluke.
Washington managed to cruise to the President’s Trophy, which may actually work against them. No, this is not some “President’s Trophy Curse” conspiracy theory. Turning the intensity on after it being off for some time is not as easy as it may seem. The Flyers have been playing with a playoff intensity for a solid month because of the mad dash they had to make. The Capitals dropped four of their last five regular season games, which would up costing Braden Holtby the single-season wins record. Barry Trotz said in postgame pressers that he was dissatisfied with the defensive play of his club, and that complacency was not going to be tolerated.
Per Ryan Gilbert of Sons of Penn: since February, the Flyers are 9-3-1 against teams that made it to the postseason. The Caps are 5-6-4.
How will that factor in? Let’s take a look at some of the keys to victory for each side:
Why the Capitals will win: They’re deeper.
It’s pretty hard to argue that the Washington Capitals are straight-up a deeper team scoring wise. Essentially of the Flyers’ weapons are on their top two lines. The Washington defenseman are far more involved in the offense. Washington is the second-most potent offense in the league, while the Flyers rank at 22nd best, which is the second-worst of any playoff team. Only the Red Wings score less per game. The Caps have 10 players who have played in more than half of their games that are shooting over 10%. The Flyers have four. If Washington is going to win, it’s because they light the lamp. Having Braden Holtby back in the crease is a good fallback just in case.
Washington’s X-Factor: Evgeny Kuznetsov and the second line.
Dissecting Alexander Ovechkin’s play is redundant at this point. He’s going to be a force and pepper Steve Mason with shots night after night and of course he, Nick Backstrom and T.J. Oshie are going to cause Philly’s top pairing defensemen fits. But Evgeny Kuznetsov has been just as dominant a player as anyone on the top line for Washington, perhaps even more so. Kuznetsov led the Capitals in scoring with 77 points. Fellow second-liner Justin Williams had 52 points, with Andre Burakovsky notching 38 points while bouncing between the second and third lines. The Caps have highly skilled players on all three lines; even Marcus Johansson had 46 points spending most of the year on the third line with Jason Chimera and the newly acquired Mike Richards. The Flyers are going to have a bear of a time handling the top line, let alone trying to contain Kuznetsov and the possession-dominant second line.
Why the Flyers will win: Steve Mason.
Steve Mason gets no respect and I am not totally sure why. Yes, his cumulative numbers are not that great with a .918 save percentage and a 2.51 goals-against average. But when analyzing his play at even strength over the past few seasons, Mason actually ranks among the league’s elite. Nick Mercadante of BlueShirt Banter has done some fantastic work analyzing just how good Mason is at 5v5.
Final Mercad chart for 2015-16, w/ AAA% chart. Lundqvist, Mason and Crawford should all get Vezina consideration. pic.twitter.com/EMShaQ2mmX
— Nick Mercadante (@NMercad) April 11, 2016
Mason was spectacular in his last postseason appearance as well, posting a 1.97 goals against average and stopping 124 of 131 shots against in a 2014 series against the New York Rangers. Something else that should not go unnoticed perhaps is Steve Mason’s right glove. As Alex Ovechkin tries to tee up a one-timer from the near side circle, the short side is taken away by Mason’s left-handedness. How will that effect his play in a full series? Ovi has two goals in four games this season against the Flyers.
Philadelphia’s X-Factor: Shayne Gostisbehere.
Philadelphia does not get much help offensively from their blueline. Mark Streit has been a nice contributor, but it is abundantly clear that the primary offensive juggernaut on this team is none other than the GhostBear himself, Shayne Gostisbehere. The rookie sensation finished with 46 points in 64 games, including a record-setting point streak. Beyond Gostisbehere, though, there are not too many good puck movers on the Flyers’ blueline. Gostisbehere will be called on not just to put points on the board, but take on the Capitals’ second line most likely. He and Andrew MacDonald are going to have their hands full. The top pairing of Nick Schultz and Mark Streit will likely get the Ovechkin line.
This is going to be a fun series. Fasten your seatbelts.
Prediction: Capitals in 7.
