The ATP’s Monte Carlo Masters 1000 tournament moves into the quarterfinals and so do our tennis picks. We had a productive day on the clay courts yesterday when we went 3-0 with our selections. We had Rafael Nadal to beat Dominic Thiem and he cashed, winning in two sets. We had Gael Monfils to beat Jiri Vesely, and he took care of business rather easily. Vesely only won three games the entire match. Lastly, we had Stan Wawrinka to beat Gilles Simon, and he was equally as dominant. Simon only won three games the entire match.
The quality of matches is getting even better than what we saw on Thursday in the round of 16. The featured match is one which will pit the last two men to win the French Open, which is fitting since Monte Carlo is played on red clay.
Rafael Nadal vs. Stan Wawrinka
Betting Odds: Nadal -135
There was a sense on Thursday that while Dominic Thiem is going to do a lot of good things in the course of his tennis career, he wasn’t quite ready to beat a great champion on his best surface in a tournament that mattered. Thiem had beaten Rafael Nadal, but he beat him at a 250-point tournament, not a Masters 1000 event. The stakes and the pressure were different in Monte Carlo, and how players deal with that pressure determines whether they become the very best. Thiem’s moment might come one day, but it hasn’t come yet. Nadal fought off 15 break points in the first set and won it in 80 minutes. Thiem lost heart and focus in the second set, as Nadal wore him down.
This was really the perfect way for Nadal to get through what everyone forecasted as a tough match, win or lose. Nadal loves fighting through problems, and now that he’s done that, he becomes a stronger player.
Stan Wawrinka has a lot more experience and toughness than Thiem does, and for that reason, one should expect a tough and close three-setter here. Nevertheless, Wawrinka has not been as good this year as in years past, and even on hardcourts last November against Nadal, he didn’t show up. He’ll probably play better this time, but will he win the biggest points? Nadal endured patchy form to make the semifinals at Indian Wells. He’s shown better survival skills than Wawrinka this year. A Wawrinka pick is entirely reasonable, but Nadal just might steal another win here. Don’t bet too much money on this one, that’s for sure. Take Nadal with your tennis picks.
Pick: Nadal in three sets
Roger Federer vs. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
Betting Odds: Federer -270
This is a match in which you know that Tsonga has the shots needed to beat Federer, but you also know that while Tsonga has beaten Federer on clay, the matchup usually goes to the Swiss just because he’s more consistent. Federer has played inferior opponents in the first two rounds of his Monte Carlo run, but Tsonga has faced similar competition, so that’s a wash. Federer looks physically fine after being injured for two months. If there were doubts about his fitness, Federer might not inspire as much betting confidence. Tsonga could win, but Federer is the better choice for your tennis picks.
Pick: Federer in three sets
Milos Raonic vs. Andy Murray
Betting Odds: Murray -263
This is a matchup in which both players come to the quarterfinals after long and tough three-setters. Raonic won, 7-6, in the third set against Damir Dzumhur, while Murray – down a set and a break, and then down 5-4 and a break in the final set – came back to escape Benoit Paire with a fortunate victory. Raonic and Murray played at the Australian Open, with Murray winning the semifinal in five sets. This is on clay and not hardcourt, but Raonic might be a bit worn down by this grind. Murray’s probably more used to being physically extended, and he’s actually not that bad on clay. This match could go either way, but Murray – after a poor performance against Paire – is probably more likely to improve as the match goes along. Take Murray with your tennis picks.
Pick: Murray in three sets
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