After a stop at Hilton Head for the RBC Heritage the PGA Tour heads further south to San Antonio, Texas this week for the Valero Texas Open. This tournament has been played in the weeks leading up to The Masters in previous years but it has been shuffled back a few weeks on the schedule to begin this Thursday April 21st.
Event Details
Event: Valero Texas Open
Category: PGA
Date: April 21-24
Location: TPC San Antonio (Oaks Course), San Antonio, Texas
It will be interesting to see how things play out this week following a pair of surprises at The Masters and the RBC Heritage. Jimmy Walker returns as the defending tournament champion and the betting favorite to win outright at +1600 odds but it won’t be easy with some stiff competition including Branden Grace, who picked up his first PGA Tour win last week.
Past Five Winners
2015: Jimmy Walker -11
2014: Steven Bowditch -8
2013: Martin Laird -14
2012: Ben Curtis -9
2011: Brendan Steele -8
2010: Adam Scott -14
What To Know About The Course
There have been six editions of this event at San Antonio but it’s important to ignore the conditions that led to some low scoring tournaments in 2010 and 2013. The course was brand new and very damp in 2010 and the 2013 tournament was set up very differently in the week before The Masters. There isn’t much about the course that really stands out from a statistical perspective heading in to this week although each of the last six winners have finished in the top-20 in putting and half of the winners have ranked first on the par five holes. Walker ranked only 45th in Driving Accuracy a year ago but he ranked fourth in Driving Distance so keep that in mind when evaluating this week’s field. That’s an important stat to keep in mind if you’re betting the Valero Texas Open this week.
The Field
Walker has won two Sony Opens and last year’s Valero Texas Open so it shouldn’t be a surprise that he is listed as the favorite at +1600 odds heading in to this week’s Valero Texas Open. RBC Heritage winner Branden Grace is next in line listed at +1800 odds while Matt Kuchar is available at +2000 odds. There is some considerable talent rounding out the top 10 on the board including Patrick Reed, Zach Johnson and Brooks Koepka at +2200 odds followed by Phil Mickelson and Brandt Snedeker at +2550 odds. Meanwhile, if you are looking for a dark horse sleeper pick it could be the 2012 winner Ben Curtis who is currently listed at +50000 odds right now.
A Good Matchup To Bet: Matt Kuchar over Branden Grace
Grace missed the cut at The Masters but he wasn’t the only top golfer to struggle in the first major event of the season and he certainly bounced back by winning the RBC Heritage. However, he will now look to post his second victory in as many weeks and that is a tough task for any golfer. Meanwhile, Kuchar has been a model of consistency with three straight top-25 finishes and he placed 15th here last year after finishing fourth here in 2014. Kuchar is considered the underdog in this matchup but he should probably be considered the favorite and anybody that takes a chance on him this week will be rewarded with substantial odds.
Top Five Pick: Jimmy Walker
Walker successfully defended his Sony Open title in 2015 and there is no reason to doubt his ability to perform at a high level again this week. Walker has already posted top-10 finishes at the Farmers Insurance Open and World Golf Championships-Cadillac Championship in 2016 and he proved last year that he could navigate the tough conditions at TPC San Antonio. He might fall just short of successfully defending his title but at the very least Walker should be a lock to place in the top five this week.
Top 10 Odds To Win The Valero Texas Open
Jimmy Walker +1550
Zach Johnson +1650
Matt Kuchar +1850
Patrick Reed +1850
Branden Grace +1850
Brooks Koepka +2050
J B Holmes +2250
Brandt Snedeker +2250
Phil Mickelson +2250
Charley Hoffman +2550
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