The ATP’s tour stop in Portugal heads to the quarterfinals and so do our tennis picks. We had another strong day on Thursday as we went 2-1 with our selections. We ended up losing with Joao Sousa as he lost in three sets to Nicolas Almagro. Sousa won the first set before dropping the next two. For our winners, we cashed with Gilles Simon, who needed three sets to get rid of PAul-Henri Mathieu, and we also cashed with Leo Mayer, who won in straight sets over Paolo Lorenzi to advance.
Two of the three matches on Friday’s card, which you see below, involve seeded players. These are quality matchups which carry a reasonable amount of uncertainty, at least enough to offer the idea that upsets here would not be complete shockers. Here’s our tennis picks for the day:
Borna Coric vs. Nick Kyrgios
Betting Odds: Kyrgios -260
There is a youthful vibe to this match. Kyrgios just celebrated his 21st birthday, and he’s the older player in this match, because Coric isn’t even 20. When two players this young are going at it, it’s not wise to say that one player is a lock. Athletes at this age can get out of bed and not feel locked into what they’re doing. They could be sluggish or grumpy, and the key point is that when things go badly, they might not have the poise needed to rein themselves in and refocus.
Nevertheless, if you’re going to choose between the two players here, Kyrgios is the better bet. He made the final of this tournament in Estoril a year ago, and he did so at this venue. Through 2014, the tournament was held at a different stadium, so Kyrgios knows how to in in this stadium and at this event. Beyond that, Kyrgios has had the better season so far. He won his first title earlier in the year in the indoor winter hardcourt season. He reached the semifinals in Miami, a Masters 1000 tournament. He is showing every indication that in two or three years, he could contend for a top-five spot in men’s tennis, once Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal get old enough that they’re not able to run as fast or cover the court as fully. Coric hasn’t yet pushed himself to the level Kyrgios currently inhabits. He’s had an up-and-down season, and it’s generally true that players as young as Coric have to go through some slumps and struggles before they can consistently excel. Coric could win, but Kyrgios is the better play for sure.
Pick: Kyrgios in straight sets
Gilles Simon vs. Pablo Carreno-Busta
Betting Odds: Simon -210
This is a matchup of two seeded players, but Simon is the top seed, and it’s because he’s been a more reliable player throughout his career. Carreno-Busta is only a capable player on clay. His game doesn’t translate to other surfaces. Simon can play well on clay or any other surface. He is an experienced player who knows how to wait out opponents and elicit mistakes. Carreno-Busta probably won’t be able to hit through the court with the effectiveness needed to get Simon off balance. He also doesn’t have a serve which will make it easy for the Spaniard to hold in a majority of his service games. Simon, the Frenchman, should be able to break at least seven or eight times in this match. That should get him to the semifinals.
Pick: Simon in straight sets
Leonardo Mayer vs. Nicolas Almagro
Betting Odds: Almagro -145
This is an absolute toss-up. On one hand, Mayer is a seeded player who has taken care of business in his first two matches. On the other hand, Almagro just mowed down fourth-seeded Joao Sousa in the previous round, a very encouraging performance. It’s easy to take Mayer as the player who is more highly ranked, but Almagro has a bigger game and is capable of more on the court. Being confident after defeating Sousa, Almagro has a great chance of playing well here and eventually gaining the upper hand.
Pick: Almagro in three sets
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