The fifth-ranked offense of the Toronto Raptors (60-29) welcomes the fourth-ranked defense of the Miami Heat (52-37) in Game of the Eastern Conference Semifinals. The game gets underway at 8:00 pm ET on Tuesday, May 3 and can be seen on TNT.
The Raptors defeated the Pacers 89-84 on Sunday. DeMar DeRozan was the game’s high scorer with 30 points on 10-for-32 shooting. Goran Dragic led the game in scoring with 25 points on 11-for-17 shooting.
The game should be a matchup of strength against strength, as the high-powered offense of Toronto (fifth in the NBA with an offensive efficiency of 107.5) takes on the elite defense of Miami (fourth in the league with a defensive efficiency of 101.9). Also, the Heat commit the fourth-fewest errors in the NBA (turnover percentage of 13.8%), while the ball-hawking defense of the Raptors causes the fourth-most (opponents’ turnover percentage of 13.6%).
The Raptors have gone 60-29 Straight Up (SU) and 46-42-1 Against The Spread (ATS). They are 60-29 SU and 46-42-1 ATS against the Eastern Conference. It’s been a struggle for opposing teams to score on the Raptors. The 97.8 points that Toronto’s defense allows per game makes them the fourth-ranked defense in the league.
Over on the other bench, the Heat head into the game with records of 47-41-1 ATS and 52-37 SU. Miami has records of 52-37 SU and 47-41-1 ATS against the East. The Heat allow just 97.8 points per game, ranking them third in the league. Miami’s defense is one of the top in the league, with opponents shooting only .438 from the field.
With the Raptors’ last win against Miami, they evened up the head-to-head record over the last 10 meetings, 5-5 SU. However, the Raptors hold the advantage ATS with a record of 6-4.
Predictions: SU Winner – Tor
Notes
On average, Miami scores 100.0 points per game (ranked 23rd), while Toronto gives up 97.8 points per game (ranked fourth).
Miami ranks 29th in points per away game with 96.2 points, while Toronto ranks sixth in points allowed at home with 97.9.
When allowing fewer than 100 points, the Raptors are 49-5 on the season. When the Heat score fewer than 100, they are a losing 17-26.
When allowing 100 or more points in a game, the Raptors are just 11-24 this season. Miami is an exceptional 35-11 when it reaches the century mark.
The Heat have a defensive rating of 101.9, fourth-best in the NBA. The Raptors also rank in the top half of the league for their offensive rating of 107.5 (ranked fifth).
Toronto averages fewer possessions per game than Miami, with 94.8 compared to 95.0. However, the Raptors score an average of 1.075 points per possession, more than the 1.053 that the Heat score.
The Miami Heat have one of the best effective field goal percentages this season, ranking 10th in the league with an EFF% of 50.8%. The Toronto Raptors have split their games 18-18 when opponents have a similar or higher EFF%.
Toronto makes an average of 18.5 assists per game (ranked 29th). Miami ranks higher in assists with 20.7 (ranked 24th).
The Miami Heat top the league in blocking, with 6.5 made per game. The Toronto Raptors average 5.4 blocks per game (ranked 11th).
Toronto ranks in the top half of the NBA in offensive rebounding at 14th, while Miami ranks near the top of the league (fifth) in defensive rebounding.
Miami makes an average of 6.5 steals per game. Toronto has a winning 39-15 record when it allows at least 6 steals.
