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NCAAF Picks: UCLA And Texas Both Carry Lots Of Questions Into Saturday Night

The UCLA Bruins are 2-0, but they have plenty of uncertainties as they head to the home of the Dallas Cowboys to play the Texas Longhorns in a neutral-site game that will feel like a roadie.

UCLA Bruins vs. Texas Longhorns – Game In Arlington, Tex.

Saturday, September 13th – 8:05 PM ET

Odds: UCLA -7.5

Why The Bruins Will Cover

Their problems aren’t nearly as bad as the problems being faced by Texas. It seems like a rebuilding year for Texas, a team that has run into all sorts of problems in the offseason and into the start of the regular season. A bunch of players were kicked off the team in the summer for disciplinary reasons, and then the injuries came. Quarterback David Ash continues to face the aftereffects of concussions, jeopardizing his football career and keeping him out of the lineup. Center Dominic Espinosa was supposed to anchor Texas’ offensive line, but he got knocked out of commission with an injury as well. The Longhorns were left with a less than complete amount of resources by former coach Mack Brown, and that’s a big reason why Brown is the “former” coach of the team. Brown also recruited a lot of low-character guys, the ones who got kicked out and other ones who have not lived up to head coach Charlie Strong’s early expectations. The new coach at Texas is trying to weed out the players he can trust from the players he can’t depend on. Texas is going through a big and messy process of reorganization. This should benefit the program in two years, but it’s very likely to ask for a price in return, this year and the next. UCLA has not played well in its first two games, but Texas is in much worse shape. That seems pretty clear.

Why The Longhorns Will Cover

They might have a lot of difficulties, but their opponent is also dealing with a lot of issues as well. The UCLA offense scored just one touchdown in the first game of the season against a Virginia team that is not expected to do much of anything in the Atlantic Coast Conference. The Bruins looked very slow on offense and seemed to be stuck in quicksand on their offensive line, which has emerged as a noticeable weakness through two weeks. Then, in week two, UCLA’s defense slipped, as the Memphis Tigers moved the ball consistently enough to score more than 30 points against the Bruins, a very shocking turn of events that almost caused the Bruins to lose to a very unaccomplished opponent. If UCLA can give up 35 to Memphis, then Texas backup quarterback Tyrone Swoopes should think that he can accomplish some things against the Bruins’ defense. The fact that this game is at a neutral site could create a level of excitement which could perhaps motivate the Longhorns without putting too much pressure on them to satisfy their home fans in Austin, who are very likely grumbling about this slow start to the season.

Outlook

UCLA might play poorly, but Texas looks like an even worse team. If both teams play at the same level, which is a genuine possibility, UCLA looks like the team that’s going to win, and probably by at least a couple of touchdowns. Texas is that bad right now.

Pick: UCLA -7.5

Written by Geoff Harvey

Geoff Harvey has been creating odds and betting models since his days in the womb, just don't ask him how he used to get his injury reports back then. Harvey contributes a wealth of quality and informational content that is a valuable resource for any handicapper.

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