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NHL Playoffs: Predictions for May 18th

predictions

Let’s take a look at the top picks, plays and predictions for Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Final.

May 18th, 2016 – NHL Schedule
Penguins vs Lightning
ML -127 / +115
O/U 5

Here are tonight’s starting goaltenders, courtesy of LeftWingLock. Matt Murray is again the likely starter for the Pittsburgh Penguins. Andrei Vasilevskiy will man the pipes once more for the Bolts, as Ben Bishop has been ruled out of tonight’s contest nursing a knee injury.

Vasilevskiy performed admirably for the Bolts in Game 2. It was about as good a game as you could possibly ask of your 21-year-old backup who was really mediocre at best during the regular season. The young Russian (11-10-0, 2.76 GAA, .910 sv%) stopped 38 of 41 shots in the game, though it would not be enough as the Penguins would even up the series in overtime to the tune of a 3-2 score.

The Pens would strike first early in the first period. That darned fourth line scored yet again, as it has done all postseason long. A nice Kris Letang stretch pass found Matt Cullen as he snuck behind Anton Stralman. Cullen and Eric Fehr would enter the zone on a 2-on-1. Cullen drew Victor Hedman towards him and found Fehr on a saucer pass. The initial shot was saved, but Cullen buried the rebound.

Ondrej Palat, in an attempt to help Vasilevskiy as he cut across the crease, wound up screening his own goaltender. The goal was Cullen’s fourth this postseason.

Five minutes later, the Pittsburgh third line skating rings around the Tampa defense. Phil Kessel found Carl Hagelin across the ice, who teed up a wrist shot. The shot was blocked in front, and as Nick Bonino tried to spin the rebound home, the puck slid off his stick and found a streaking Kessel, crashing the net. 2-0 Pittsburgh. Tampa’s third line, which was without Ryan Callahan, could not keep pace.

The first period was far from over. Anton Stralman, in his first game back from injury, made up for his positioning on the first goal with a wrist shot of his own. A gorgeous and patient pass from Jonathan Marchessault set up Stralman on the rush.

But wait, there’s more! With less than a minute to go in the first, the Lightning evened things up thanks to a filthy wrist shot from Jonathan Drouin. The rush generated from Tampa’s own zone seemed innocent enough, the Pens did a good job backchecking to prevent numbers. The shot beat Murray clean under his right arm.

It would take until overtime for the deadlock to be broken. Brian Dumoulin found Bryan Rust up ice, who set up Sidney Crosby for the game-winner.

Take a look at Rust’s pass here:

predictions

Rust uses his head and shoulders to fake like he is going to try the cross-slot pass to Matt Cullen, which creates space behind him for Crosby. It’s an incredibly smart play by Rust, who is generally not known for his offensive prowess.

Evgeni Malkin was held pointless for the sixth game in a row. He has not scored in seven games, which is the longest such postseason streak of his career. Malkin has spent most of his time with Chris Kunitz (1 goal, 3 assists) and Bryan Rust (2 goals, 2 assists) of late. Malkin does have three goals and six assists in 12 postseason games despite the drought.

The Penguins are favored on the road because of Vasilevskiy remaining in net. If the Russian can hold it together and piece together another performance like last night, the Bolts fortunes could change quickly.

Tonight will also be a big test for Anton Stralman. Stralman was a -6 in shot differential, and his positioning was uncharacteristically off all night. Chalk it up to not having played in months.

Take a look at Stralman’s positioning on the game-winner:

predictions

Stralman is in no man’s land. Hedman is back and the puck finds its way to Bryan Rust at center ice, which gives Pittsburgh numbers. It’s an awful look for Stralman.

However, it’s important to note that it is not a look for Stralman that is likely to be repeated. As he continues to play, he will get better this series. Finding your sea legs is tough after missing months and being thrust into the second-biggest series possible. Expect a much better performance from the Bolts’ top pair tonight.

Prediction: Cash in on the Bolts being underdogs on home ice. Play the over.

Written by Casey Bryant

Casey is GetMoreSports' resident hockey fanatic and host of "Jersey Corner" on the GMS YouTube channel. He is the play-by-play voice of Marist College Hockey and the New York AppleCore. He currently works as a traffic coordinator for MSG Networks. Steve Valiquette once held a bathroom door for him.

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