Thomas Almeida vs Cody Garbrandt is Sunday!
Live on FS1, bantamweight prospects will collide in the headlining position as undefeated Brazilian striking specialist Thomas Almeida takes on Team Alpha Male upstart Cody Garbrandt. Also featured on the card is Renan Barao’s featherweight debut. Earlier we had a look at the prelims, in particular the Aljamain Sterling vs Bryan Caraway bout, but now let’s move on to the main card:
Josh Burkman vs. Paul Felder
Burkman, a veteran of over 40 professional bouts, brings a crafty, well-rounded game to the table. He’s sneaky on the feet, often luring his opponents i, and likes to throw lackadaisical kicks to mask other facets of his offense. Burkman’s best weapons are in close quarters as he slices with elbows and knees, and often finds himself wrapped around his opponent working for takedowns. From there, Burkman has great instincts which allow him to wrap up submissions mid-transition to finish the fight. Burkman’s style contrasts greatly with Felder’s straight-forward, hurt-you-as-much-as-I-can approach.
Felder loads up for every strike of his traditional Dutch kickboxing style, and is willing to walk through punches in order to land his own; this may render Burkman’s baiting tactics ineffective. As long as Felder can stay out of danger on the ground, I think he should be able to batter Burkman on the feet and not get lured into any of Burkman’s tricks. It may not be decisive, but I’m confidently picking Felder to win a decision by out-powering Burkman on the feet.
Jorge Masvidal vs. Lorenz Larkin
Masvidal, coming off of a close split decision loss to Benson Henderson, will put his silky smooth kickboxing up against Larkin’s explosive arsenal of muay thai-centric striking. Larkin, a former middleweight, seems to be just as fast as most other 170 lb’ers while being noticeably more powerful. Masvidal is one of the best defensive fighters, but his offense has sometimes suffered from lack of output. I do believe Masvidal to be the more well-rounded athlete though, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he sought out some takedowns to keep Larkin guessing.
Ultimately, I like Larkin’s chances here. His kicks can change the tide of any fight; especially his chopping low kicks which left Albert Tumenov in some serious trouble. Masvidal’s biggest weapon in this bout is his movement. I think we’ll see Masvidal slip away from most of Larkin’s hand combinations, but I don’t think Jorge is going to be effective in returning with his own offense. Hesitation has plagued previous Masvidal performances, and I see the consistent barrage of leg kicks giving Larkin the edge on the scorecards. However, don’t be surprised if Masvidal utilized some of his grappling to turn it into a razor-thin bout.
Chris Camozzi vs. Vitor Miranda
In the middleweight division, we have the surging Brazilian Vitor Miranda looking to increase his three-fight win streak when he meets the always-tough Chris Camozzi. While this match up doesn’t have the implications that some of the other bouts on this card may have, I see this being a very excellent contest.
Camozzi is a hard guy to put away, but Miranda is exceptionally skilled at taking his opponent out. Miranda has scored head kick finishes in two of his last three fights, and while I don’t see him being too terribly effective with head kicks against the 6’3″ Camozzi, he should have the advantage in almost every striking exchange. Camozzi could make this a tough fight by tying up and using the same knee strikes he used to put away Joe Riggs, but I see Miranda being too smart for that and maintaining distance. Camozzi may hang in there until the end, but I think Miranda is a safe pick.
Tarec Saffiedine vs. Rick Story
Back in the welterweight division, we have a match up between two dark horses in the division. Rick Story has been out of action, plagued with injuries, since his big decision win over Gunnar Nelson in October of 2014. He has been unable to follow that momentum up, and now he starts fresh over against Saffiedine who has also been inactive for much of his UFC career.
Saffiedine is an exceptional kickboxer, and we saw that when he lit up Jake Ellenberger for a decisive win earlier this year and even when he gave MacDonald fits. Story’s approach isn’t too different from Ellenberger’s – charge forward and throw heavy hands, taking shots to deliver his own. Story can make things interesting by going for takedowns and at least using the threat of the takedown to set up his hands, but Saffiedine manages distance well and will look for counters. Ultimately, Story has the power to finish the fight if he connects, but Saffiedine has the technical expertise to win over the course of the fight so long as his defense stays up to par.
Renan Barao vs. Jeremy Stephens
Making his featherweight debut is former bantamweight champion Renan Barao. Barao was last seen getting decimated by TJ Dillashaw twice with a less-than-stellar win over Mitch Gagnon between them. Truth is – neither man has looked very stellar as of late, but this fight is a very interesting contrast between technical finesse and brute strength/power.
The biggest x-factor I believe there is in this fight is Barao’s mental and physical condition. He took loads of punishment against Dillashaw, and may not have the mental or physical fortitude that he once had. Luckily for him, Stephens does not present as difficult of a puzzle as Dillashaw did. Barao is a very agile fighter, but typically resorts to attacking on straight lines much like the rest of the Nova Uniao team. Barao also has a big arsenal of weapons, both on the feet and the ground, that much of us have forgotten about. The big question is whether or not he can avoid eating one of Jeremy’s big power punches. If he can, look for Barao to take a decision as he out-points Stephens for three rounds, but definitely don’t be surpised if Stephens lands a shot on Barao with power that he has never felt before.
Thomas Almeida vs. Cody Garbrandt
Two undefeated fighters, two very exceptional strikers who seek out the finish. Thomas Almeida represents the newest generation of Brazilian muay thai which combines square, linear attacks with complex boxing combinations and shot selection. Garbrandt on the other hand brings his Team Alpha Male style – free-flowing footwork, variety of angles, and aggressive blitzes. It’s a very interesting clash between two styles of fighting that we’ve seen clash many times before. But Thomas Almeida and Cody Garbrandt are the new age.
Almeida’s biggest strength is his shot selection as he always brings the right tool for the job. He’ll attack the body if his opponent has tight head defense, he’ll throw the flying knee if his opponent has a habit of ducking, or he’ll lead with the elbow if his opponent rushes in unguarded. However, it takes a little while for Almeida to figure this out which is why he’s very hittable in the beginning. If Garbrandt is going to win this fight, I think his best chance is in the opening round. Cody hits hard, and his blitzes are well-timed albeit a little reckless from time to time. Overall, Garbrandt has great comfort in the pocket and doesn’t shy away from damage – and neither does Thomas Almeida.
This fight could be one of the most violent bouts of the year, and I wouldn’t miss it for anything. I’m expecting Almeida to run into some adversity early on in the fight like he typically does. Look for Garbrandt’s hands (especially his left hook) to slam home a few times, but once Almeida adjusts and calculates the right attack, look for him to take him out in the second or third.
