The French Open men’s tournament arrives at the semifinals and so do our tennis picks. What’s particular to these semifinals is that they occur under different competitive conditions within an unusual Friday schedule for Court Philippe Chatrier in Paris. Because of weather, one ATP semifinal and one WTA semifinal will be played on Chatrier, while one match in each tournament will be moved to the second show-court stadium, Court Suzanne Lenglen. The women’s semifinals will occur first, then the men’s semifinals. The other difference is that while Stan Wawrinka and Andy Murray (who played their quarterfinals on Wednesday) will have the normal one day off between a quarterfinal and a semifinal at a Grand Slam event, Novak Djokovic and Dominic Thiem will be playing on consecutive days. Moreover, Djokovic and Thiem have played on three consecutive days, not just two. These factors are worth considering.
Stan Wawrinka vs. Andy Murray
This is a matchup in which both players have been inconsistent enough to merit some skepticism from bettors. Wawrinka and Murray have both played five-set matches earlier in this tournament. They have both been up and down at times. They needed four sets to win other matches on the road to the semifinals. They have both trailed matches, two sets to one. Murray even trailed a match two sets to love before rallying. He was two points away from losing in the first round to Radek Stepanek, who was a wild card. And remember, he faced a big deficit in the second round two when going up against a qualifier. Neither player has been consistently great in this tournament.
What’s going to make the difference? On a faster court, it would be Murray’s second serve, which can get killed for an easy winner with a blistering Wawrinka return. However, with all the rain in Paris, the court (Chatrier, not Lenglen) is going to play as a much slower court. It will be harder to hit through the court. This takes the focus off Murray’s serve. It’s going to be more a matter of Murray hitting deep enough and with sufficient variety to keep Wawrinka off balance. Wawrinka should benefit from a slower court, since the ball will sit up for him and he won’t have to play as much defense. Murray needs to get Wawrinka off balance. Murray can probably do this to some extent, and Wawrinka will make some errors, but can Murray win three sets if Wawrinka is relatively solid? Wawrinka is an accomplished player in moments such as this. He deserves a very slight edge, but no one should be shocked if Murray won. Take Wawrinka with your tennis picks.
Pick: Wawrinka in five sets
Novak Djokovic vs. Dominic Thiem
This is a matchup in which Thiem will face a very tough challenge on Court Suzanne Lenglen. Thiem played a very intense match with David Goffin on Thursday. Thiem was one point away from falling behind by two sets, but he scrambled on defense to win the point and eventually win the second-set tiebreaker. Thiem fell behind 4-2 in the third set, but he rallied to win the set by taking the next four games. He then ran away with the fourth set, but he had to work very hard to win that match. With no day off, he must play the World No. 1, the player who is seeking his first Roland Garros championship. This is one of those matches that feels like it’s a couple of pay grades above where Thiem is at right now. Is Djokovic potentially vulnerable? Of course. This matchup is on clay and he’s never won at Roland Garros. He can see the finish line and he has some demons here to exorcise. Some could make the case that Thiem right now isn’t much worse than Wawrinka was last year when he stunned Djokovic. However, we’re banking on the fact that Djokovic has learned his lesson and will move past this round.
He knows how to handle these situations, while Thiem is just learning. You have to go with Djokovic here, though Thiem could be ready to win a title in two years. Take Djoker with your tennis picks.
Pick: Djokovic in straight sets
