The ATP’s Swedish Open tournament heads toward the quarterfinals and so do our tennis picks. We had a successful day with our selections on Thursday, going 3-0 on the day. We cashed in with David Ferrer, who needed three sets to get by Calvin Hemery. We also had Joao Sousa, who ousted Carl Soederlund in straight sets. Lastly, we took Gastao Elias to edge Taro Daniel and he did exactly that, winning in three sets. He actually trailed after the first set but came back to win the second and the third to get the win.
This tournament has fortunately proceeded smoothly, while Switzerland’s WTA tournament has slowed to a crawl due to constant rain. Everything’s set for the final eight in Bastad, Sweden. Here are three of the four quarterfinals, the ones which will be played later in the day on Friday:
Joao Sousa vs. Gastao Elias
This match is an all-Portuguese clash. Sousa is seeded second, while Elias is unseeded. Elias needed three sets to beat No. 117 Taro Daniel of Japan in the second round. Sousa crushed unseeded Carl Soderlund, 6-3 and 6-1, in the second round. Sousa, who is ranked in the top 40, has made himself a legitimately decent player, one who should be able to take care of lower-ranked players on clay. That’s exactly what this situation is, and moreover, Sousa’s impressive performance the other day makes him the better in-form player. Every reasonable betting inclination points to Sousa being the right choice. The dynamics of playing a fellow countryman could be complicated, but Sousa knows that he won’t get many more chances to earn money and ranking points on clay this season, with the whole tour about to switch to hardcourts in just over a week. Take Sousa with your tennis picks here.
Pick: Sousa in three sets
Fernando Verdasco vs. Facundo Bagnis
This should be an interesting match. Bagnis is the unseeded player, while Verdasco is seeded fifth, but Bagnis just defeated fourth-seeded Marcel Granollers in straight sets the other day. That’s an impressive performance which suggests that Bagnis is ready to win this match as well. The complication, however, is that it’s often hard for a player of Bagnis’ caliber – he’s ranked 93 – to win back-to-back matches against higher-ranked players. The first strong match is impressive, but a lot of players in Bagnis’ position often fail to play well in the next match against a similarly credentialed opponent. Sometimes it’s the physical game, and other times it’s the mental game, but just the same, back-to-back wins over good players is not easy to achieve. On that reason alone, pick Verdasco in what should nevertheless be a close match. Take Verdasco with your tennis picks.
Pick: Verdasco in three sets
David Ferrer vs. Dustin Brown
This is a match in which two schools of thought will clash. On one hand, Ferrer is the clay-court expert. He has produced a very good career on all surfaces (he even made the quarterfinals of Wimbledon a few times), but clay is his best surface. Ferrer is a player who should be trusted against a lower-ranked player on clay. On the other hand, Ferrer is getting very old and is showing every sign of petering out. He just doesn’t seem to have much fuel left. Ferrer needed three sets to beat Calvin Hemery the other day. Hemery is ranked outside the top 350. Ferrer might not be able to beat top-20 players these days, but he should whack a guy like Hemery while allowing no more than six or seven games. Dustin Brown is not good on clay. He’s best on grass, where he’s beaten Rafael Nadal at Wimbledon. However, if Ferrer is this fragile, Brown can still play his exciting brand of fast-pace tennis and beat Ferrer. This is what bettors must think about.
Ultimately, Brown is so unsuited for clay that Ferrer deserves a slight advantage. Brown simply can’t play the way he wants to on a slow surface, and Ferrer should be able to hit plenty of passing shots. Take him with your tennis picks.
Pick: Ferrer in three sets
