The ATP’s BB&T Atlanta Open tournament offers first-round action and that’s where we’ll start our tennis picks. Let’s see which players can take advantage of a relatively modest field and pick up a meaningful amount of both ATP rankings points and prize money.
Fernando Verdasco vs. Dusan Lajovic
There is always the possibility that Verdasco, seeded fifth here at this tournament, could become erratic and lose focus. He has done that many times. He is not the most rock-solid seeded player a bettor should trust in an opening-round match. However, sometimes a bet turns not on one’s view of the favorite, but on one’s view of the underdog. Lajovic is ranked at No. 70. He has remained fully in the shadows as far as Serbian tennis is concerned, all while countryman Novak Djokovic continues to pile up one Masters 1000 title after another. It’s not as though Lajovic is outside the top 100. By many measurements, being in the top 75 is really not that bad for a professional tennis player. It does reflect a certain level of achievement and competence, and it guarantees that Lajovic (provided he can sustain the ranking) won’t have to worry about entering the qualifying rounds to get into the main draws of Grand Slam tournaments. There are a number of things his ranking will achieve for him, and that’s a good thing. However, Lajovic has not made a deeper impression upon the ATP Tour, and that’s the kind of realization which makes it hard to tab him in this match. It’s not so much that Verdaso should be trusted, but that Lajovic does not merit enough trust to be viewed as the likely upset winner.
On the year, Verdasco is 18-14, which might seem so-so but this is an early tournament matchup for him. This is more than manageable. To offer some contrast, Lajovic is just 12-14 in main draws this year and just 2-4 on hard courts. He’s also just 6-6 in other events, so he’s not exactly inspiring much confidence here. Go with Verdasco, only because the alternative isn’t strong enough. He’s the better choice for your tennis picks.
Pick: Verdasco in straight sets
Austin Smith vs. Taylor Fritz
This should be a straightforward match for Fritz. He is still a teenager, so it’s reasonable to make cautious statements about how he’s still learning and growing on the tour, but Smith is an even less proven player. He’s also a wild card, which – at a tournament of such minimal stature – suggests that tournament organizers are trying to throw him a bone, rather than reward him based on the merit of what he has done to date as a tennis player. When that kind of situation exists, you should run away from the wild card player. Fritz is the clear choice here, with his booming serve and solid forehand working well on a fast court. Fritz should be able to win many cheap points in this match. Take him with your tennis picks.
Pick: Fritz in straight sets
Sergiy Stakhovsky vs. Ivan Dodig
This is a matchup in which Stakhovsky’s attacking game might work better on a fast court in the heat of Atlanta. The ball should move faster through the court on a quick surface, and that’s why Stakhovsky is likely to take time away from Dodig, forcing him to hit a lot of passing shots under pressure. The margins slightly favor Stakhovsky in this match. It should be close, but as long as Stakhovsky hits a reasonable percentage of first serves, he should be fine. Dodig also won the doubles in Montreal, so he might be a bit tired as well.
Neither player has looked particularly strong this season in main draws, but remember that we’re early in the tournament here. Dodig is just 7-13 in main draws and 1-6 on hard courts. Stakhovsky is just 5-10 in main draws and 1-4 on the hard courts, but he has gone 18-6 in other events this year. Take him with your tennis picks in this spot.
Pick: Stakhovsky in three sets
